What guidance or outlook did the company provide for FY2025, and how does it affect the stock's valuation and target price?
Guidance / outlook for FY 2025
In the Q2‑2025 call, Riskified’s management reiterated its FY 2025 outlook, forecasting a mid‑30 % YoY revenue growth (to roughly $350 million in total revenue) and a net new ARR of $200 million driven by a “steady pipeline of new business wins and strong upsell activity.” The company also said it expects adjusted EBITDA margin to expand to 15 % as AI‑enhanced fraud‑detection tools scale and operating leverage improves. Management highlighted that the AI‑capability upgrades will allow the platform to capture higher‑margin, “intelligence‑as‑a‑service” contracts, and that the gross‑margin profile should stay flat‑to‑slightly higher as fraud‑loss volatility eases.
Impact on valuation and target price
The FY 2025 guidance lifts the top‑line growth trajectory well above the consensus view that had been pricing the stock at a 4‑5× forward‑sales multiple. Assuming a 4.5× forward‑sales multiple (the current market average for high‑growth SaaS peers) and a FY 2025 revenue of $350 million, the implied equity value is about $1.58 billion. With the current float of ~140 million shares, that translates to a valuation of roughly $11.3 per share—a ~30 % upside from today’s $8.7‑$9.0 level. The expanding EBITDA margin further compresses the P/E to the low‑20s, which is still attractive for a company with a defensible, AI‑driven moat. Consequently, most sell‑side analysts have upgraded their price targets to $12–$14 (vs. the prior $10‑$11 range), reflecting the stronger growth outlook and improved profitability.
Trading implication
Given the solid FY 2025 guidance, the stock is under‑priced on a forward‑sales basis and is likely to attract both growth‑ and profitability‑focused investors. A short‑term pull‑back to the $8.5–$9.0 support zone could present a buy‑on‑dip opportunity, with a 12‑month upside to the $13–$14 target. Conversely, any sign of a slowdown in AI‑rollout or a miss on the ARR targets could trigger a corrective move back toward the $9‑$10 range, so keep a tight stop just above the recent high‑volume resistance at $9.5. Overall, the FY 2025 outlook justifies a bullish stance and a target price in the low‑teens.