Same‑store sales performance
Red Robin reported that comparable‑restaurant (same‑store) sales rose 3.2 % year‑over‑year in the fiscal Q2 ended July 13, 2025. That gain is a slowdown from the 6.5 % YoY increase posted in the prior quarter, but it still represents an improvement over the 0.6 % decline recorded in Q2 2024.
Trading implications
The modest acceleration from a year‑ago decline signals that the brand’s “gourmet‑burger” positioning and recent menu refreshes are beginning to resonate, yet the deceleration versus the prior quarter suggests headwinds—likely from lingering inflationary pressure on discretionary dining and a competitive fast‑casual landscape. From a technical standpoint, the stock has been hovering near its 200‑day moving average, with a bullish crossover on the 50‑day SMA occurring after the earnings beat; however, volume on the breakout has been tepid, implying limited conviction.
Actionable view
‑ Long‑term investors may consider adding on dips, targeting the $23–$25 range where the 200‑day MA and a key Fibonacci retracement converge, betting on continued same‑store sales momentum as the spring‑summer dining season unfolds.
‑ Short‑term traders should watch the next earnings call (Q3) for evidence that the sales growth trajectory can re‑accelerate. A miss on Q3 comparable sales would likely trigger a break below the recent lows around $21.50 and could open a short‑side opportunity, especially if accompanied by a bearish MACD crossover.
In short, Q2’s 3.2 % same‑store sales growth is a positive step versus last year but a slowdown from the previous quarter, leaving the stock poised at a pivotal technical juncture where further sales acceleration could validate a bullish case, while any weakness may expose downside risk.