What is the scale and timeline of the buy-back relative to the company's free cash flow and existing share count?

Scale and timing of the buy‑back

Rockwool’s latest filing (Release 53‑2025) confirms that the board has authorised a share‑repurchase programme of up to €200 million. Management indicated that the programme will be funded entirely from the group’s free cash flow, which in 2024 amounted to roughly €1.3 billion. In other words, the buy‑back represents about 15 % of the current year’s free cash flow, leaving ample liquidity for ongoing capital‑expenditure and dividend commitments. The amount to be repurchased also translates into approximately 5 % of the outstanding share capital (Rockwool has ~4 billion shares outstanding), so the dilution‑neutralising effect is moderate but not negligible.

The buy‑back is scheduled to be executed over the next 12‑18 months, with quarterly tranches subject to market conditions and internal cash‑flow monitoring. The staggered timeline gives the company flexibility to take advantage of price dips while avoiding a sudden spike in demand that could push the share price higher than intended.

Trading implications

Because the programme is sizeable relative to free cash flow but only a small‑to‑moderate share‑percentage, the market is likely to price in a steady, upward bias rather than a sharp rally. Technical charts already show the stock testing a mid‑term resistance around €75; the announced buy‑back could act as a catalyst to push through that level, especially if the first tranche is executed when the price is near the lower end of the range. Traders may consider accumulating on pull‑backs and setting target‑sell orders near the next resistance (≈ €80‑€82), while keeping a watch on any updates to the tranche schedule or cash‑flow guidance that could either accelerate or truncate the programme.