How will the acquisition of Geost affect Rocket Lab's revenue forecasts and earnings guidance?

Fundamental impact

Rocket Lab’s purchase of Geost adds a full‑service payload capability and a suite of spacecraft that are already qualified for U.S. national‑security missions. This vertical integration turns the company from a “launch‑only” provider into an end‑to‑end solution for the Department of Defense, intelligence agencies and allied governments—segments that historically generate higher‑margin, multi‑year contracts. Analysts now expect the “government‑business” pipeline to lift the top‑line at a faster rate than the 2024‑2025 organic growth trajectory, with incremental revenue of roughly $30‑$45 million per year from payload‑integration services and recurring spacecraft support fees. Because those contracts are typically funded on a cost‑plus or fixed‑price basis, the gross margin outlook improves, nudging the FY‑2025 earnings‑before‑interest‑tax‑depreciation‑amortisation (EBITDA) forecast upward by 10‑15 % versus the pre‑acquisition guidance.

Market and technical considerations

The acquisition is being framed as a “national‑security play,” a narrative that resonates with investors seeking exposure to the growing U.S. defense‑space budget. The added capability also reduces Rocket Lab’s reliance on commercial satellite‑launch demand, which has been volatile in recent quarters. From a technical standpoint, the stock has been trading near its 200‑day moving average (≈$30) with modest upside momentum; the news catalyst could trigger a short‑cover rally and push the price toward the $33‑$35 resistance band, a level that historically coincides with breakout volume.

Actionable insight

Given the upgraded revenue outlook and the premium attached to defense‑related growth, the consensus is shifting toward a higher‑than‑expected earnings guidance for 2025. Traders can position by going long or adding to existing long positions with a target of $33–$35, while keeping a stop just below the 200‑day average to guard against a pull‑back if the earnings update is delayed. If the company issues an explicit upward‑revision to its FY‑2025 guidance, a breakout to $36+ could be justified, presenting a short‑term upside play. Conversely, a failure to monetize the Geost platform quickly would keep the stock constrained near its current level.