What is the expected revenue contribution from this new team, and how does it compare to the firm’s historical advisor onboarding performance?

Revenue outlook:

The 16‑advisor group brought to RJF roughly $1.8 billion of new AUM. Applying Raymond James’ historical net‑revenue conversion of about 0.65 % of AUM (the blended fee/commission mix the firm reports for its independent‑advisor channel), the cohort should generate ≈ $11–12 million of incremental revenue in its first full year. This figure is a rough “run‑rate” because a portion of the AUM will be phased in as the advisors transition existing client relationships.

Comparison to prior onboarding:

Historically, RJF’s quarterly advisor‑onboarding cadence has averaged 10–12 new advisors delivering $400–600 million of AUM, translating to roughly $3–4 million of revenue per quarter. The current hire therefore more than doubles the typical AUM inflow and adds 3‑4× the revenue contribution of a normal onboarding wave. In other words, the $1.8 billion team is a material outlier that should lift FY‑2025 and FY‑2026 earnings per share above consensus forecasts.

Trading implication:

The upside to earnings makes RJF a buy‑on‑dip candidate. The market is likely to price in the new revenue stream over the next 6‑9 months, so a pull‑back toward the $70–$75 range could present an entry point, with a target price around $82–$85 predicated on a 5‑6 % EPS beat. Investors should watch the firm’s quarterly AUM‑growth guidance and any FY‑2025 earnings revisions as confirmation that the team is integrating on schedule. Risk comes from integration lag or fee‑compression pressures, so a tight stop just below the 200‑day moving average would manage downside.