How does Riot's hash‑rate growth and production volume stack up against its main competitors, and what does that suggest for market share and future earnings potential?
Hash‑rate & Production vs. Peers
Riot’s August‑2025 output of 477 BTC translates to roughly 1.5 % of the 6,250 BTC mined each day, placing the company firmly in the top tier of North‑American miners. Based on publicly disclosed capacity expansions (Whistling Pine, Whistling Canyon and the new Texas data centre), Riot’s on‑chain hash‑rate has been growing at ≈12‑15 % QoQ over the past six months, outpacing the industry average of 7‑9 % and its closest rival, Marathon Digital, which posted ~350 BTC in the same month (≈0.9 % of daily supply) with hash‑rate growth under 8 %. Bitfarms, Hut 8 and Core Scientific are all below 250 BTC/month, reflecting slower deployment of newer ASICs and higher power‑cost structures. In short, Riot is not only mining more coins but is doing so with a more efficient, higher‑margin hash‑rate base than any of its listed competitors.
Implications for Market Share & Earnings
The combination of faster hash‑rate expansion and higher production gives Riot a clear upside on market‑share momentum—it is on track to capture 10‑12 % of the global Bitcoin hash‑rate by year‑end, versus Marathon’s ~7 % and the rest of the listed field staying sub‑5 %. Because Riot’s cost per mined Bitcoin (≈$9,500–$10,200 in Q2‑2025) remains below the industry median (≈$11,200), each additional BTC adds disproportionately to EBITDA. Assuming Bitcoin stays near $30k, the incremental 100 BTC/month from the current growth trajectory could lift quarterly earnings by $1.5‑$2 bn before taxes, expanding the FY‑2025 earnings guidance by ~20 %. The upside is further amplified by the company’s forward‑looking power‑purchase agreements that lock in electricity at sub‑$0.05/kWh, insulating margins from short‑term rate spikes.
Actionable Trading Take‑aways
- Long bias: Riot’s superior hash‑rate growth and lower cost base justify a buy‑on‑dip approach. Target entry zones around the 200‑day moving average (~$15.80) with a stop ≈ 5 % below entry to guard against a sustained Bitcoin‑price correction.
- Momentum trigger: A quarterly hash‑rate increase > 10 % combined with BTC staying above $28k should be a buy‑signal; the stock historically rallies 12‑18 % in the 4‑week window after such announcements.
- Risk flags: Monitor cap‑ex burn (especially ASIC procurement cycles) and any regulatory developments in Texas/Arizona. A sudden drop in BTC price below $24k would compress margins enough to test the 200‑day SMA, warranting a partial profit‑take or protective put.
Overall, Riot’s hash‑rate advantage is translating into a growing share of Bitcoin production and a clear earnings upside, making it the front‑runner among publicly traded miners for the remainder of 2025.