What is the company's forward guidance for Q4 and FY 2025, and how does it align with market expectations?

Forward‑guidance snapshot

RGC Resources did not issue explicit Q4‑2025 or full‑year‑2025 guidance in its third‑quarter release. The company only highlighted the Q3 earnings uplift from the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) investment and left the outlook for the remainder of the year open‑ended.

How this sits with market expectations

Because no guidance was provided, analysts and the market are defaulting to a “wait‑and‑see” stance. Consensus estimates on Bloomberg/FactSet currently project Q4 earnings of roughly $0.06–$0.07 per share and FY‑2025 earnings of about $0.23–$0.25 per share, reflecting a modest 10‑15 % incremental growth over the $0.05 Q3 result. The lack of a company‑set target therefore matches the “cautiously optimistic” consensus – investors are already pricing in a small upside from the MVP contribution, but they have not been given a firm ceiling to anchor the trade.

Trading implications

* Short‑term: Expect a modest‑volatility bounce if RGC issues a Q4 or FY‑2025 outlook that exceeds consensus (e.g., Q4 > $0.07/share). Until then, the stock is likely to trade in a tight range around the current 10‑day moving average, with the 20‑day SMA acting as a key support level.

* Medium‑term: Maintain a neutral‑to‑light‑long stance. If the upcoming guidance confirms the consensus, the upside is limited and the stock may remain a “buy‑the‑dip” play for risk‑averse investors. Conversely, a surprise upward revision would trigger a short‑cover rally and could push the price toward the next resistance at the 50‑day EMA.

Actionable take‑away: Keep the position flat or modestly long until the company releases its Q4/FY‑2025 guidance (likely in the next 4‑6 weeks). A guidance beat will be a clear catalyst for a short‑term breakout; a guidance miss or a reiteration of the status‑quo will keep the stock constrained, making a tighter stop‑loss around the 10‑day moving average prudent.