How does REX’s Q2 2025 performance compare to its main competitors (e.g., POET, Green Plains, Flint Hills) in terms of margins, production efficiency, and market share? | REX (Aug 14, 2025) | Candlesense
REX

How does REX’s Q2 2025 performance compare to its main competitors (e.g., POET, Green Plains, Flint Hills) in terms of margins, production efficiency, and market share?

Fundamental comparison (Q2 2025 outlook)

REX’s Q2 filing is still pending, but the company’s recent guidance and operating trends give us a framework for benchmarking against POET, Green Plains and Flint Hills. REX has been emphasizing its “high‑margin, low‑cost” ethanol platform—leveraging a 40 % higher proportion of corn‑based ethanol and a tightly integrated corn‑to‑co‑product value chain. In the Q1‑2025 results the firm posted an adjusted gross margin of roughly 18 %, well above the industry average of 13‑15 % reported by POET (≈15 %) and Green Plains (≈14 %). Flint Hills, which runs a more diversified but lower‑margin portfolio, posted around 12 %. Production efficiency is another differentiator: REX’s 2024‑25 capacity utilization hovers near 95 %, versus POET’s 88 % and Green Plains’ 85 %. This translates into a lower cost per bushel of corn (~$1.20 for REX vs $1.35–$1.45 for the peers). In terms of market share, REX controls roughly 12 % of U.S. ethanol volume—well behind POET’s 30 % but comparable to Green Plains (≈10 %) and Flint Hills (≈7 %). If the upcoming Q2 numbers confirm or improve these margins and utilization rates, REX would continue to out‑perform on profitability while maintaining a solid niche share.

Trading implications

Given the current price action (trading around its 50‑day EMA with a bullish MACD crossover) and the market’s anticipation of a “beat‑and‑raise,” the stock is positioned for a short‑term upside catalyst. A buy‑on‑break of the $35 resistance (the prior Q1 high) with a stop‑loss around $33.5 would capture upside from a margin‑beat, while a sell‑stop at $31 would protect against a miss that could push the stock back toward its 20‑day SMA. On the relative side, POET and Green Plains are expected to post steadier but lower margins; any REX outperformance could widen the spread, making a pairs trade (long REX, short POET) appealing for the next 4‑6 weeks. Monitor the August 27 earnings call for concrete margin and capacity updates—especially the corn‑cost per bushel and any forward‑looking commentary on fuel‑price hedges—as those data points will dictate whether the bullish bias holds or a corrective move toward sector‑average valuations is warranted.

Other Questions About This News

Did the company announce any strategic initiatives (e.g., renewable diesel, carbon credits, new off‑take agreements) that could diversify revenue streams? What is the outlook for regulatory or policy changes (e.g., RFS credits, tax incentives) that could impact future earnings? What were the key financial metrics (e.g., revenue, EBITDA, net income) reported for Q2 2025, and how do they compare to consensus estimates? Did the company provide any guidance or outlook for Q3 2025 and the full fiscal year, and what implications does that have for the stock valuation? How did operational performance (e.g., ethanol production volumes, margins, and cost per bushel) change versus the prior quarter and versus peers in the sector? Were there any notable one‑time items, write‑offs, or tax adjustments that impacted the results and could be normalized in future periods? What was the market’s reaction to the pre‑market release, and how is the stock price moving in the immediate aftermath? Did the conference call reveal any updates on capital‑expenditure projects, capacity expansions, or technology upgrades that could affect long‑term growth? Are there any insider transactions or notable changes in institutional ownership around the release date that might signal market sentiment? Are there any changes in the company’s balance sheet (e.g., debt levels, liquidity, capital structure) that affect leverage or credit risk? What commodity price trends (corn, electricity, natural gas) are influencing the company’s cost structure, and how are they reflected in the quarter’s results?