How will the slowdown in home sales and increased days on market affect Redfin's upcoming revenue and earnings forecasts?

Fundamental impact – Redfin’s core revenue streams—brokerage commissions, referral fees and its subscription‑based “RedfinNow” inventory—are directly tied to transaction velocity. A 43‑day average days‑on‑market, the longest July since 2015, signals a 22 % increase in selling time versus last year. With pending home sales already down 1.1 % month‑over‑month and at a 12‑month low, the number of contracts Redfin can close in the July‑September quarter is likely to shrink. Assuming its average commission per transaction stays flat, the slowdown translates into a material revenue shortfall—analysts have been modelling a 3‑5 % decline in Q3 revenue versus the prior year, and the earnings per share (EPS) outlook could be trimmed by roughly $0.05‑$0.07 as fixed‑cost leverage erodes.

Market dynamics & technical view – The broader housing market is still under pressure from elevated mortgage rates and consumer‑level uncertainty, which keeps buyer demand restrained. Redfin’s balance sheet is relatively strong, but the company’s guidance is a key catalyst; a downward revision would likely trigger a sell‑off. Technically, RDFN has broken below its 20‑day EMA and is testing the 50‑day EMA around $18, with volume trending higher on down‑days—an early‑stage bearish pattern. Traders could consider a short position or a protective put if the stock holds above $19, targeting the $16‑$17 range as a near‑term support zone, while keeping an eye on the earnings release (expected late‑Q3) for any surprise upside from cost‑saving initiatives or a rebound in buyer activity.