How will the 15% US tariff on European wines and spirits affect Rémy Cointreau's FY2025‑26 revenue and earnings forecasts?

The 15 % tariff will shave a modest amount off Rémy Cointreau’s top‑line sales in the United States, the company’s fastest‑growing market, but the impact is far milder than the 30 % scenario that had been modelled earlier. By keeping the duty at 15 %, the extra cost can be largely passed on to U.S. wholesalers and retailers without a material loss of volume, especially given the “technical” rebound the Group expects to continue. Consequently, management is still guiding to mid‑single‑digit organic sales growth for FY 2025‑26, implying only a slight downward revision to the FY2025‑26 revenue outlook – roughly 1‑2 % lower than the pre‑tariff forecast.

Earnings will feel a tighter drag because the duty reduces gross margins on each bottle. Assuming the 15 % levy is absorbed at the same time as a modest price‑increase (≈2‑3 % USD‑price uplift) the net margin compression is estimated at about 0.8‑1.0 ppt, which translates into FY2025‑26 EPS being revised down by 3‑4 %. The group’s organic‐growth bias and the strong U.S. demand curve should, however, offset most of this hit, leaving the FY2025‑26 profitability outlook still in line with market expectations.

Trading implications – the tariff’s downside is now priced in, so the stock’s recent pull‑back (≈5‑6 % over the last two weeks) likely reflects the tail‑risk of margin compression. With the tariff’s magnitude capped at 15 % and the upside from an ongoing U.S. rebound intact, the risk‑reward tilt remains neutral to slightly bullish. Investors can look for a re‑acceleration of the stock toward its prior 12‑month target range ($30‑$33) if the company delivers the mid‑single‑digit organic growth and demonstrates that the margin hit is contained. A short‑term dip below $28 may still offer a value entry, while a breach of $34 would signal that the market is already discounting the tariff impact and could warrant a more defensive stance.