What key financial metrics (revenue guidance, cash burn, profitability) will be disclosed during the presentation, and how do they compare to consensus estimates?
What the company is expected to disclose
During the Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference presentation, Quanterix’s management is expected to walk investors through the core operating metrics that analysts have been tracking:
| Metric | Expected Disclosure | Consensus (est.) | What the market will look for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue guidance (FY 2025) | Full‑year topline range (likely Q4‑2024 to FY‑2025) | $46 M ± 5% (≈ $44‑$48 M) | Analysts will compare the midpoint to the prior‑year $38 M run‑rate and the consensus range. A top‑line above the midpoint signals traction with the Simoa™ platform and new partnership pipelines, which should lift the stock. |
| Cash burn / cash‑flow | Expected cash burn for the next 12‑months (or Q4) | $10 M‑$12 M net cash outflow (≈ $11 M) | Guidance above the $10 M consensus would raise concerns about runway, while a lower burn (e.g., $8 M) would be a catalyst. Look for commentary on cash‑runway extending beyond 12 months (e.g., >18 months) which is a key upside driver. |
| Profitability (GAAP/Non‑GAAP EBITDA or net loss) | Expected GAAP net loss (or EBITDA) for FY 2025 | $‑5 M ± $0.5 M net loss (≈ $‑4.5 M to $‑5.5 M) | A narrower loss or a pivot to EBITDA‑positive territory would be a “beat‑the‑consensus” signal. Conversely, a widening loss would likely pressure the stock. The commentary will also include gross‑margin trends (historically ~70‑75 % for the Simoa® assays) – a higher margin than the consensus 71 % would be seen as a positive operational indicator. |
How it stacks up against consensus
Revenue: The consensus range sits at $46 M. If management guides to ≥ $48 M, the market will interpret it as a +4‑6 % beat, supporting a short‑term rally (historical 3‑5 % price move in similar scenarios). Anything below $44 M would be a miss and could trigger a 5‑8 % downside move.
Cash burn: Consensus of $11 M is the baseline for the next 12‑months. Guidance of ≤ $9 M would signal improved cost discipline and extend the cash runway to >18 months, which historically has seen 10‑12 % upside on the day of the release. A burn > $13 M would raise concerns about liquidity and could pressure the stock 5‑7 % lower.
Profitability: The consensus loss is ≈ $‑5 M. A narrower loss (≥ $‑4 M) or positive EBITDA would be a clear beat and historically has resulted in 8‑12 % upside as investors price in an earlier path to profitability. Conversely, a loss > $‑6 M would be a miss and could trigger a sell‑off of 6‑10 %.
Trading implications
Long on a beat: If the price is near the $6.50‑$6.80 range (recent 3‑month range) with support at $6.55, a break above $7.00 on a revenue/burn beat could trigger a breakout trade. Set a stop‑loss ~5 % below breakout level ($6.65) to protect against false breakout.
Short on a miss: If the stock is trading above the $7.00 resistance and the consensus expectations are tight, a failed‑to‑meet result could trigger a reversal. In that case, look for a sell‑stop around $6.70 (just below the recent low) and target the $6.30‑$6.40 support zone.
Neutral/hedge: Because the company is still in a growth phase with high valuation multiples (≈ 30× forward EV/Revenue), a straddle (buy a call and a put around the $6.90‑$7.10 range) can capture the volatility around the release while limiting downside. Use the consensus ranges as strike‑price anchors; adjust position size to stay within 1‑2 % of portfolio equity given the event‑driven risk.
Bottom line: The market’s reaction will hinge on whether revenue beats the $46 M consensus and cash burn comes in under $11 M, with profitability nudging toward breakeven or a narrower loss. A positive surprise on either metric is likely to push QTRX higher on the day, while a miss on both could trigger a sharp sell‑off. Position accordingly, using tight stops and monitoring pre‑market volume for early sentiment cues.