Fundamental impact – Qualcomm’s Automotive segment already accounts for roughly 15‑20 % of total revenue, and the BMW iX3 integration is the first high‑volume launch of its new “Snapdragon Ride Platform.” The partnership is being positioned as a “domino effect” that should unlock additional OEMs (e.g., Daimler, Hyundai) over the next 12‑18 months. Assuming a conservative rollout of 20 000 iX3 units in the current quarter at an average royalty of $12‑$15 per vehicle, Qualcomm could add $0.24‑$0.30 billion of top‑line revenue. That translates to roughly $0.05‑$0.07 billion of contribution margin, enough to lift Q3 earnings per share (EPS) by 3‑5 cents versus the current consensus. Management is likely to raise its FY 2025 automotive revenue guidance by 8‑10 % and may flag a modest upside to the full‑year EPS outlook. The upside is tempered by the fact that the iX3 launch will be spread across Q3‑Q4, so the earnings bump will be incremental rather than a one‑time surge.
Technical and trading outlook – The stock jumped ~4 % on the news, finding support around the 52‑week low‑midpoint ($115) and facing resistance near the prior high ($130). If the earnings beat materializes, we could see a breakout above $132 with the 20‑day SMA acting as a bullish trigger. A pull‑back to the 50‑day EMA ($119) after the initial rally would present a higher‑probability entry for a medium‑term long position, targeting $138‑$145 ahead of the earnings release. Conversely, a miss on the automotive contribution or a weaker‑than‑expected OEM pipeline could see the stock retest $112‑$110, providing a short‑covering opportunity. Keep an eye on the upcoming earnings call (late October) and any additional OEM announcements that could confirm the “domino” narrative.