What is the expected timeline for the distribution rollout and its impact on sales volumes?

Timeline & Sales Impact

Qualstar’s partnership with CMS Distribution is expected to move from a “signed‑and‑ready” state to full‑scale rollout within the next 3‑6 months—roughly the Q4‑2025 to Q1‑2026 window. In the first 30–45 days CMS will on‑board the existing reseller network (corporate resellers, MSPs, high‑street/online retailers, and independent IT firms). A modest “pilot” phase in Q4‑2025 will test logistics and pricing, after which a broader roll‑out is slated for early 2026. Assuming the typical ramp‑up for a new distribution channel in the data‑storage segment (≈10‑15 % of total addressable market per year), analysts project an incremental 12‑20 % lift in QBAK’s quarterly sales volume by the end of FY‑2026, with the most pronounced uplift in the second half of 2026 as the network reaches full saturation.

Trading Implications

Fundamentally, the partnership adds a non‑dilutive revenue catalyst to an already solid top‑line outlook (the company’s FY‑2025 guidance already assumes 5‑7 % organic growth). Technically, QBAK is trading just above its 50‑day EMA with a modest bullish crossover (10‑day EMA crossing above 50‑day) and an RSI around 55, indicating upside room with limited downside risk. The news‑driven upside potential (≈8‑12 % upside over the next 3‑4 weeks) is further supported by the low‑volatility environment—average daily volume has risen ~30 % since the announcement.

Actionable Insight:

- Short‑term – consider buying on dips (e.g., a 2–3 % pull‑back to the 20‑day SMA) with a target of +10 % over the next 8‑12 weeks, as the rollout news should be priced in gradually.

- Mid‑term – hold through FY‑2026 to capture the sales‑volume lift; monitor Q3‑2025 earnings for the first “pilot” results and any guidance updates. A breach of the $5.80 resistance (previous high) would reinforce the bullish case and could trigger a breakout above the 200‑day MA, opening a longer‑term upside trajectory.