When are the key upcoming litigation milestones (e.g., hearings, disclosures) that could affect market sentiment?
Litigation timeline you can realistically watch for
| Milestone | Typical timing (relative to filing) | Why it matters for the stock |
|---|---|---|
| SECârequired disclosure (FormâŻ8âK) | Within 4 business days of the firmâs public notice (i.e., byâŻSeptâŻ7âŻââŻ9âŻ2025) | The filing will contain the exact complaint, the number of shareholders named and any âmaterialâ facts the company must comment on. A detailed 8âK often triggers the first wave of price volatility. |
| Courtâset classâcertification hearing | Usually 90â120âŻdays after the complaint is docketed, so expect a hearing lateâNovember to earlyâDecemberâŻ2025 | A judgeâs decision on class certification is the first âgo/noâgoâ for a fullâscale securitiesâfraud case. Certification â higher potential liability; denial â the case may die or be limited to a few named plaintiffs. |
| Discoveryâphase scheduling (interrogatories, depositions) | The court typically orders a 30âday discovery plan after certification, with the first set of depositions by JanâMarâŻ2026 | The volume and tone of discovery requests (e.g., requests for internal emails, financial models) can spill over into the market via analyst notes or insiderâtrading alerts. |
| Motions for summary judgment / settlement talks | 6â12âŻmonths after discovery begins, so midâ2026 is a realistic window | A settlement announcement or a summaryâjudgment win for either side is a catalyst that can swing the stock sharplyâup on a favorable settlement, down on a judgment against PubMatic. |
| Trial (if it proceeds) | 12â18âŻmonths from filing, placing the trial midâ2027 at the earliest | Even the prospect of a trial keeps the risk premium elevated for months; the actual verdict (if any) would be a definitive market mover. |
Trading implications
Immediate reaction: The 8âK filing (early September) will be the first marketâimpact event. Expect an initial sellâoffâthe sentiment score of â65 already reflects a sharp downside bias. Traders can look for a shortâterm oversold bounce around the 2âday VWAP (likely ~5â8% below the recent 20âday average) as contrarians step in. Tight stopâlosses (â2% above the postânews low) are advisable given the volatility envelope.
Mediumâterm positioning: If the classâcertification hearing lands in lateâŻNovâDec, the stock often âprices inâ the outcome a few days before the hearing. A failed certification (rare but possible) would prompt a shortâcover rally; a grant would keep the downside bias and could invite protectiveâput buying (e.g., OTM puts expiring DecâŻ31). Consider scaling into a longâput spread (e.g., 2025â12âŻ30âŻ% strike vs. 2026â03âŻ20âŻ% strike) to capture the downside while limiting premium outlay.
Risk management: The litigation risk premium is already embedded in a widened bidâask spread and depressed implied volatility on the underlying options. Keep position size â€2â3% of portfolio and monitor SECâEDGAR alerts for any unexpected amendment (e.g., a ânotice of settlementâ or a âcourtâordered disclosureâ that could arrive earlier than the typical schedule). If the stock breaks below its 200âday EMA with volume >2Ă average, it may be a signal that the market is reâpricing the lawsuit as a higherâprobability loss, warranting a defensive exit or a tightened hedge.
In short, the next concrete date to watch is the FormâŻ8âK filing (early September); all subsequent dates are docketâdriven and will become public as the court sets its calendar. Use the early filing as a trigger for a shortâterm volatility trade, then position defensively for the classâcertification window (NovâDec), where the true direction of market sentiment will be clarified.