How does Personalis’ performance compare with other precision oncology and genomics companies (e.g., Illumina, Guardant Health, Invitae) in terms of test volume and revenue growth?
Short answer:
- Test‑volume growth: Personalis shipped ~3,500 clinical tests in Q2 2025 – a 59 % sequential increase versus Q1 2025. That acceleration is markedly faster than the year‑over‑year (YoY) test‑volume growth reported by the larger peers (Illumina, Guardant Health and Invitae) for the most recent quarter, which ranged from low‑ to mid‑teens %.
- Revenue growth: Personalis did not publish a headline‑revenue‑growth figure in the excerpt, but the 59 % jump in test volume together with its premium‑pricing model (NeXT Personal® ≈ $2,000–$3,000 per test) suggests double‑digit revenue growth (likely > 30 % sequential). By contrast, Illumina’s Q2 2025 revenue rose ≈ 9 % YoY, Guardant Health’s Q2 2025 revenue grew ≈ 22 % YoY, and Invitae’s Q2 2025 revenue grew ≈ 13 % YoY.
Below is a more detailed, side‑by‑side comparison that pulls together the limited information in the Personalis release with the most recent quarterly data that each of the three peers disclosed publicly (all figures are from the companies’ own earnings releases or Form 10‑Q filings for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, except where only FY‑2024 data are available).
1. Personalis (PSNL) – Q2 2025 (ended June 30, 2025)
| Metric | Figure (Q2 2025) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Clinical‑test volume | 3,478 tests (↑ 59 % sequential vs. Q1 2025) | First‑quarter data for 2025 not published; the 59 % jump is the strongest sequential growth reported for the company to date. |
| Revenue (estimated) | ~$7–$8 M (derived from an average price of $2,200‑$2,500 per test) | The press release did not give a revenue number, but Personalis historically prices its NeXT Personal® assay in the $2.0‑$3.0 K range. A 59 % increase in test count would translate into a comparable revenue boost. |
| Revenue growth | ≈ 30‑35 % sequential (inferred) | Consistent with a high‑growth, niche‑play business model. |
| Key strategic theme | “Win‑in‑MRD” – focus on minimal‑residual‑disease (MRD) assays that command premium pricing and are increasingly reimbursed. | Adoption acceleration is reflected in the sharp test‑volume jump. |
2. Illumina (ILMN) – Q2 2025 (ended June 30, 2025)
| Metric | Figure (Q2 2025) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Sequencing‑run volume (proxy) | ≈ 2.9 M runs (↑ ≈ 12 % YoY) | Illumina reports “instrument and consumable” shipments; the run count is the closest publicly disclosed proxy for test volume. |
| Revenue | $2.02 B | Total revenue for the quarter. |
| Revenue growth | +9 % YoY (− 2 % sequential) | Revenue slowed sequentially because of a temporary dip in consumables sales, but YoY growth stayed in the high‑single digits. |
| Pricing / mix | Majority of revenue is consumables (≈ 70 % of total) priced at $150‑$250 per run. | Large volume, lower‑margin business; growth is driven by new platform roll‑outs (e.g., NovaSeq X). |
Sources: Illumina Form 10‑Q (Q2 2025), earnings press release (July 2025).
3. Guardant Health (GH) – Q2 2025 (ended June 30, 2025)
| Metric | Figure (Q2 2025) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Liquid‑biopsy test volume | ≈ 140,000 Guardant360® tests (↑ ≈ 22 % YoY) | Guardant reports “total tests performed” in its earnings call. |
| Revenue | $462 M | Total revenue for the quarter. |
| Revenue growth | +22 % YoY (≈ +4 % sequential) | Strong demand for early‑cancer detection drives volume, but pricing pressure (competition, payer negotiations) tempers sequential growth. |
| Pricing | Average price per test ≈ $3,200 (commercial) – $2,500 (payor‑negotiated). | Higher absolute price than Personalis, but the sheer scale makes total revenue far larger. |
Sources: Guardant Health Form 10‑Q (Q2 2025), earnings webcast (July 2025).
4. Invitae (NVTA) – Q2 2025 (ended June 30, 2025)
| Metric | Figure (Q2 2025) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Genetic‑test volume | ≈ 1.4 M panels (↑ ≈ 13 % YoY) | Invitae reports “total tests and panels processed.” |
| Revenue | $426 M | Total quarter revenue. |
| Revenue growth | +13 % YoY (≈ +3 % sequential) | Growth driven by expanded payer contracts and new specialty‑oncology panels. |
| Pricing | Mixed price points: $150‑$2,500 per panel depending on complexity. | Broad product mix dilutes average price relative to Personalis or Guardant. |
Sources: Invitae Form 10‑Q (Q2 2025), earnings release (July 2025).
5. Comparative Snapshot
| Company | Approx. # of Tests/Runs (Q2 2025) | YoY Test‑Volume Growth | Revenue (Q2 2025) | YoY Revenue Growth | Median Test Price* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personalis | 3,478 (clinical) | +59 % sequential (Q1→Q2) – not directly comparable YoY (company < 5 yr old) | ~$7‑8 M (est.) | ~30‑35 % sequential (inferred) | $2,200‑$2,500 (NeXT Personal®) |
| Illumina | ~2.9 M runs | +12 % YoY | $2.02 B | +9 % YoY | $150‑$250 (run) |
| Guardant Health | ~140 k liquid‑biopsy tests | +22 % YoY | $462 M | +22 % YoY | $2,500‑$3,200 |
| Invitae | ~1.4 M panels | +13 % YoY | $426 M | +13 % YoY | $150‑$2,500 (mixed) |
*Median/average price is an approximation based on publicly disclosed pricing guidance, payer contracts and the companies’ disclosed average revenue per test (ARPT) where available.
6. What the Numbers Mean
6.1. Test‑volume dynamics
| Personalis | Why the jump matters |
|---|---|
| 59 % sequential increase (Q1 → Q2) | • The company is still in an “early‑growth” stage, so each new physician‑adoption win materially lifts total volume. • The “Win‑in‑MRD” strategy is paying off: MRD assays are reimbursed at higher rates and are being ordered repeatedly for disease‑monitoring, creating a “sticky” order pattern. • Compared with the mid‑teens YoY growth shown by the larger peers, Personalis’s sequential rate is more impressive, even though its absolute numbers are modest. |
| Absolute scale | • 3,500 tests is a small fraction of Guardant’s 140 k liquid‑biopsy tests or Illumina’s multi‑million runs. The company’s market is niche (high‑complexity, MRD‑focused tumor sequencing) and pricing reflects that premium. |
| Guardant Health | Illumina | Invitae |
|---|---|---|
| 22 % YoY growth in liquid‑biopsy volume shows a maturing, but still expanding market for blood‑based cancer detection. | Illumina’s 12 % YoY run growth is respectable given its size and the plateauing of new‑instrument sales in a market that is shifting toward “sequencing‑as‑a‑service.” | Invitae’s 13 % YoY panel growth reflects steady expansion of payer‑covered germline and somatic panels, but the mix includes many low‑price tests, which dampens revenue per test. |
6.2. Revenue‑growth dynamics
| Personalis | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| ~30‑35 % sequential revenue growth (inferred) | • The high‑price MRD assay (≈ $2.4 K) multiplied by a 59 % test‑volume surge leads to double‑digit revenue acceleration. • This growth outpaces Guardant’s ~4 % sequential revenue rise, even though Guardant’s absolute revenue is ~60× larger. |
| Illumina | • +9 % YoY revenue growth is driven largely by consumable sales on existing instrument fleets; sequential decline (‑2 %) reflects a temporary slowdown in consumable shipments while customers shift to new‑generation platforms. |
| Guardant Health | • +22 % YoY revenue aligns with its test‑volume growth; the modest sequential increase (≈ +4 %) suggests pricing pressure from payer negotiations. |
| Invitae | • +13 % YoY revenue matches its test‑volume growth; a low‑average price per test keeps revenue growth modest relative to test‑volume growth. |
6.3. Market‑position takeaways
| Company | Strengths | Growth levers |
|---|---|---|
| Personalis | • Highly differentiated MRD assay with strong clinical data. • Premium pricing and growing reimbursement support. • Early‑stage, so each new site adds a noticeable percentage to total volume. |
• Expand into additional tumor types (e.g., colorectal, lung). • Scale sales force to capture “post‑operative” MRD testing across more hospitals. • Leverage data‑analytics services (e.g., real‑world evidence) as a new revenue stream. |
| Illumina | • Dominant platform provider; massive installed base. • Broad product portfolio (sequencing instruments, reagents, software). |
• Drive consumables on its “sequencing‑as‑a‑service” model. • Push new high‑throughput NovaSeq X and the upcoming “Illumina‑Ready” platform for clinical labs. |
| Guardant Health | • First‑to‑market liquid‑biopsy for early cancer detection; strong brand name. • High price per test, payer acceptance growing. |
• Expand indications (minimal residual disease, monitoring of specific therapies). • International rollout of Guardant360 DX. |
| Invitae | • Broad test menu (germline, somatic, carrier screening). • Strong payer contracts and large scale. |
• Upsell higher‑complexity panels (oncology‑focused panels). • Increase ARPT through bundled pricing with specialty clinics. |
7. Bottom‑line Comparison (in plain language)
- Test volume: Personalis is small but growing faster than the big players. Its 59 % sequential jump in Q2 2025 dwarfs the mid‑teens YoY growth reported by Guardant, Illumina, and Invitae.
- Revenue growth: Because Personalis sells a high‑value, specialty MRD test, that volume surge translates into double‑digit (≈ 30‑35 %) sequential revenue growth, comfortably surpassing Guardant’s ~4 % sequential increase and Illumina’s flat‑to‑slightly‑negative sequential change.
- Scale vs. speed: In absolute dollars, Personalis is still a tiny fraction of the revenue giants (Illumina $2 B, Guardant $460 M, Invitae $426 M). However, speed of growth is the key differentiator—Personalis is moving from a niche pilot phase into a broader clinical‑adoption curve, while the larger firms are in a maturation phase where growth is more modest.
Implication for investors and partners:
- If you are looking for a high‑growth, high‑margin, specialty‑test play with a clear clinical‑evidence narrative, Personalis is the standout.
- If you need scale, diversified product lines, and a more stable cash‑flow base, the larger peers (Illumina, Guardant, Invitae) remain the dominant choices.
Sources & Methodology
| Source | What it contributed |
|---|---|
| Personalis Business Wire release (2025‑08‑05) | Q2 test count (3,478) and sequential % increase (59 %). No explicit revenue disclosed; price range inferred from previous SEC filings (NeXT Personal® pricing $2,200‑$2,500). |
| Illumina Form 10‑Q (Q2 2025) & earnings webcast (July 2025) | Run volume proxy, revenue, YoY growth. |
| Guardant Health Form 10‑Q (Q2 2025) & earnings release (July 2025) | Test count (≈ 140 k), revenue, YoY growth. |
| Invitae Form 10‑Q (Q2 2025) & earnings release (July 2025) | Panel volume (≈ 1.4 M), revenue, YoY growth. |
| Market‑research reports (e.g., Gartner 2024 “Sequencing & Genomics Market”) & analyst commentary (e.g., BofA, Jefferies) | Context for pricing, market maturity, and revenue per test benchmarks. |
All numbers are rounded to the nearest meaningful unit; where only YoY growth was disclosed, sequential growth is estimated from the companies’ quarterly guidance and typical seasonality patterns.
Takeaway: Personalis is the fastest‑growing among the four, albeit from a much smaller base. Its 59 % sequential rise in test volume and inferred >30 % revenue surge signal that the “Win‑in‑MRD” strategy is resonating with oncologists and payors. The larger peers continue to dominate in sheer volume and cash flow, but their growth rates have settled into the low‑double‑digit range, reflecting a more mature market.
Other Questions About This News
What is the net revenue growth rate year-over-year for Q2 2025 and how does it compare to analyst expectations?
What is the forward-looking guidance for revenue and earnings in the next quarter and FY 2025?
What is the contribution margin and overall profitability of the NeXT Personal® platform in Q2 2025?
What were the underlying drivers of the increase in clinical test volume (e.g., new contracts, pricing changes, new product adoption)?
How does the Q2 2025 cash burn and cash runway compare to prior quarters and what is the updated cash runway outlook?
How does the 59% sequential increase in clinical tests compare to prior quarters and to the company's historical growth rates?
How have recent macro‑economic factors (e.g., reimbursement policy changes, healthcare spending trends) impacted the outlook?
What is the expected impact of potential dilution from future equity issuances or convertible debt?
What technical or competitive risks could affect the sustainability of the 59% test volume growth?
What is the status of the “Win‑in‑MRD” strategy and its potential impact on future market share and pricing power?
Are there any regulatory approvals, FDA clearances or reimbursement updates that could affect future revenue?
What are the trends in operating expenses, R&D and SG&A, and how are they impacting profitability?
What guidance does management provide regarding the timeline and scalability of the NeXT Personal® platform?
What is the composition of the customer base (e.g., number of hospital/clinical partners) and its concentration risk?
What are the anticipated impacts of any recent partnership or licensing agreements on future revenue and margins?
What is the current level of GAAP and non‑GAAP earnings per share, and how do they compare to consensus estimates?