What commodity price assumptions are embedded in the guidance and how sensitive are the results to oil and gas price fluctuations?
Short answer: The excerpt you’ve provided does not contain the specific commodity‑price assumptions that Petr Resources used in its Q2‑2025 guidance, nor does it include the sensitivity analysis that would show how the results would change with different oil‑ or gas‑price scenarios.
Below is a concise explanation of what we can and cannot deduce from the information that has been shared, together with suggestions on where you can find the detailed figures you’re looking for.
1. What the news release actually tells us
| Item | Detail from the release |
|---|---|
| Company | Petrus Resources Ltd. (TSX: PRQ) |
| Report period | Three‑ and six‑month results ended June 30 2025 |
| Source | GlobeNewswire press release (August 7 2025) |
| Content | The release announces that the company “is pleased to report financial and operating results” for the quarter and half‑year. No numerical financial data or guidance assumptions are quoted in the excerpt you have supplied. |
| What is missing | • The price levels (e.g., WTI crude, Brent, natural‑gas, condensate, or any other commodity) used as inputs in the financial guidance. • The sensitivity tables (e.g., “price‑sensitivity analysis”, “scenario analysis”, or “sensitivity to oil/gas price changes”) that many mining and energy companies normally attach as a foot‑note or a separate “Sensitivity to commodity price” table. |
| Implication | Because the press‑release excerpt contains only a headline announcement, there is no publicly‑disclosed price assumption or sensitivity information to reference. |
2. Why the missing information matters
Commodity‑price assumptions are a core part of any oil‑and‑gas company’s guidance – they usually specify a base‑case price (e.g., $85 /bbl for crude oil, $3.20 /MMBtu for natural gas, $75 /bbl for condensate, etc.) that the company uses to convert production volumes into cash‑flow forecasts.
Sensitivity analysis is a standard disclosure – it shows how a change (e.g., ±10 % in oil price or ±$0.50 in gas price) would affect key metrics such as net earnings, cash flow, net debt, and cash‑flow‑to‑debt ratios. Investors use this to gauge the volatility of the business and to assess the risk of a price‑driven downturn.
Without those details – we cannot answer how the results would change if oil prices were 10 % higher or lower, or what the break‑even price is for the company’s operations.
3. How to find the exact price assumptions and sensitivity analysis
Read the full press release – The complete GlobeNewswire announcement (often a PDF or HTML file) will typically contain:
- A “Commodity price assumptions” table (or a paragraph in the “Management Discussion and Outlook” section).
- A “Sensitivity” or “Scenario” table that presents the effect of a 10‑15 % change in oil/gas price on EBITDA, net earnings, cash flow, and/or cash‑flow‑to‑debt‑ratio.
Check the Company’s Investor Relations site – The “Quarterly Results” page for the “Q2‑2025” release will usually have a PDF of the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)” or “Financial Results – Q2 2025” document that contains the assumptions and the sensitivity tables.
Look at the SEDAR filing – Canadian public‑company disclosures (e.g., Form 40‑F) are filed on SEDAR. The filing for the quarter (likely a Form 40‑F or a Quarterly Report) will list the price assumptions and a sensitivity analysis in the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis” section.
Contact Investor Relations – If the document is not publicly posted, you can email the IR team (usually listed in the press release) and request a copy of the “Q2 2025 Guidance” sheet, which will contain the price assumptions.
Look for supplementary presentations – Often the company will release a “Quarterly Investor Presentation” that includes a slide titled “Price Sensitivity” or “Commodity Price Assumptions”.
4. Typical commodity‑price assumptions used by similar Canadian oil‑and‑gas companies (for context)
Note: The following figures are *examples** of the type of assumptions that other companies in the sector have used in recent quarters. They are not taken from Petrus Resources’ release (the information isn’t available in the excerpt you provided).*
| Commodity | Typical base‑case price (often used for guidance) |
|---|---|
| WTI crude oil (U.S.) | $80‑$85 /bbl |
| Brent crude (European) | $85‑$90 /bbl |
| Natural gas (AECO) | $2.80‑$3.20 /MMBtu |
| Condensate | $45‑$55 /bbl |
| Natural‑gas liquids (NGL) | $1.00‑$1.25 /bbl (NGL price per barrel of oil equivalent) |
Typical sensitivity ranges (commonly disclosed in a “sensitivity” table):
| Scenario | Oil price ±10 % | Gas price ±10 % | Effect on Net Earnings (example) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | $85 /bbl WTI | $3.00 /MMBtu | — |
| Oil +10 % | $93.5 /bbl | – | Net earnings may rise 15‑25 % depending on the proportion of oil in the revenue mix. |
| Oil −10 % | $76.5 /bbl | – | Net earnings may fall 12‑22 % (often the most sensitive metric). |
| Gas +10 % | – | $3.30 /MMBtu | Net earnings may increase 5‑10 % (if natural‑gas production is a sizable portion of revenue). |
| Combined | – | – | Net earnings could swing ±30 % in a high‑oil/low‑gas scenario, or be relatively flat if the portfolio is heavily weighted to condensate. |
Again, these figures are for illustration only and not derived from Petrus Resources’ actual guidance.
5. Bottom line
- The specific commodity‑price assumptions and the sensitivity of Petrus Resources’ Q2‑2025 guidance to oil and gas price changes are not included in the excerpt you provided.
- To obtain that information, you will need to consult the full Q2‑2025 earnings release, the associated MD&A or SEDAR filing, or the Investor‑Presentation that accompany the press release. Those documents normally contain a table listing the assumed prices for oil, gas, and related products, plus a “price‑sensitivity” analysis that quantifies how changes in those prices affect key financial metrics.
If you obtain the full release or a related PDF and share the relevant sections, I can give you a precise, numbers‑based answer and walk through the exact sensitivity impact (e.g., “a $5 /bbl increase in WTI would raise net earnings by X %”, “a $0.20/MMBtu drop in gas price would reduce cash flow by $Y million”, etc.). Feel free to paste the relevant excerpt or let me know if you need guidance on how to locate the full filing.