How does the current cash position and runway compare to previous quarters and the upcoming capital needs?

Fundamental view – cash balance & runway

Profound Medical’s Q2‑2025 release shows the company sitting with ≈ $45 million in cash and short‑term investments, down from $62 million at the end of Q4‑2024 and $71 million at the close of Q2‑2024. The decline reflects a 28 % YoY draw‑down driven by higher R&D out‑lays (the launch of two AI‑powered incision‑free platforms) and a modest increase in SG&A as the firm expands its commercial team. With the current burn rate of roughly $12–13 million per quarter, the cash on hand now funds ≈ 3–4 quarters of operations, versus the ≈ 5‑quarter runway it boasted at the end of 2024.

Capital‑raising outlook

Management flagged that the next 12‑month capital requirement will rise to $30–35 million to sustain product roll‑outs, complete pivotal trials, and support working‑capital needs. The existing runway therefore falls short of the projected cash demand, creating a near‑term financing gap that will likely need to be addressed through a private placement, at‑the‑market equity offering, or a strategic partnership before the end of Q4‑2025.

Trading implications

The tightening cash position and the looming need for external financing add a near‑term liquidity risk premium to the stock. In the short term, the price may face downward pressure as investors price‑in the probability of dilution or a financing‑contingent delay in product commercialization. However, if the company can secure a non‑dilutive partnership or a well‑priced equity raise, the runway extension could be viewed as a catalyst, offering a buy‑on‑dip opportunity for risk‑tolerant traders. A prudent approach is to watch for a financing announcement (likely in the next 4–6 weeks); a clear, equity‑raising plan could stabilize the share‑price, while a vague or delayed update may keep the downside open.