What is the expected timeline for commercialization of the next‑gen optical engines and how might it affect near‑term stock volatility?

Timeline for commercialization – POET’s partnership with NTT Innovative Devices is a classic “technology‑to‑product” bridge that usually accelerates time‑to‑market by 6‑9 months versus a stand‑alone effort. Given that the two firms announced the collaboration in late August 2025 and have already begun joint‑architecture work, analysts expect a limited‑run pilot of the next‑generation optical engines by the fourth quarter of 2025 (targeted at select AI‑mobile OEM trials). Full‑scale volume production and revenue‑generating shipments are projected for mid‑2026 (approximately 12‑18 months after the announcement), contingent on successful validation and supply‑chain ramp‑up.

Impact on near‑term volatility – The news injects a strong positive catalyst (sentiment ≈ 70) into POET’s price, which will likely trigger a short‑term spike in both volume and price swings. In the next 4‑6 weeks the stock may trade in a tight, high‑beta range (≈ 5–8 % daily moves) as traders price‑in speculation around pilot results, potential pre‑order announcements, and any macro‑tech funding news. Technical patterns suggest the stock will break above its recent 20‑day EMA if the pilot timeline is reaffirmed, offering a buy‑on‑dip or breakout entry for risk‑managed positions. Conversely, an unexpected delay or a negative pilot read‑out could precipitate a rapid sell‑off, so keep stop‑losses near the prior swing low (≈ $0.90 × current price) and monitor the company’s SEC filings and NTT press releases for concrete commercialization milestones.