What the CEOs are likely to cover
In a âfireside chatâ at a Barclayâs conference the two CEOs will use the platform to give investors a forwardâlooking view of the business. Historically, CEOs of regionalâbank holdingâcompanies focus on the same handful of metrics that drive the stockâs valuation, and that is what analysts will be listening for:
| Metric / Guidance | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Netâinterest margin (NIM) outlook â the spread between loan yields and deposit costs is the primary driver of profitability for both Pinnacle and Synovus. An upgrade in the NIM trend (e.g., âwe expect NIM to hold at 2.6â2.7âŻ% for the rest of 2025â) would signal stronger netâinterest income and could lift earningsâperâshare (EPS) forecasts. | |
| Loanâgrowth and netânew loan balances â regional banks are judged on the pace of loanâoriginations versus creditâquality constraints. Guidance such as âweâre targeting 6â7âŻ% YoY loan growth in 2025â will be a key catalyst for the share price. | |
| Depositâfunding trends â the mix of coreâdeposit growth versus brokerâproduced deposits (e.g., âcore deposits up 5âŻ% YoY, brokerâproduced deposits flatâ) informs fundingâcost assumptions and NIM sustainability. | |
| Creditâquality & lossâprovision expectations â forwardâlooking netâchargeâoff ratios and provisionâforâcreditâloss guidance (e.g., âwe anticipate a netâchargeâoff ratio of 0.5âŻ% in Q4â) set the floor for earnings volatility. | |
| Capitalâreturn plan â any update on dividend payout, shareârepurchase or capitalâratio targets (e.g., âwe will maintain a CET1 ratio of ~13âŻ% and return 30âŻ% of earnings to shareholdersâ) is a direct signal to totalâreturn investors. | |
| FYâ2025 earnings guidance â most importantly, the CEOs will likely issue a topâline EPS or netâincome range for the full year (e.g., âwe project FYâ2025 net income of $210â$225âŻM, representing a 5â6âŻ% YoY increaseâ). This number anchors the valuation multiple the market will price in. |
Trading implications
- If the NIM outlook or loanâgrowth targets are raised above consensus, the upside potential for both stocks is immediate; expect a shortâterm rally on the day of the webcast and a tightening of the priceâtoâearnings (P/E) multiple as the market reâprices higher earnings.
- A more conservative creditâquality outlook (higher netâchargeâoff or lossâprovision guidance) could compress earnings forecasts and trigger a sellâoff, especially on the downsideâsensitive âvalueâtrapâ segment of the regionalâbank space.
- Capitalâreturn updates (e.g., a larger shareârepurchase program or a dividend hike) tend to boost the âyieldâplusâgrowthâ narrative and can attract incomeâfocused investors, supporting the stock even if earnings growth is modest.
Actionable takeâaway:âŻMonitor the webcast transcript for any deviation from the consensus consensus on NIM, loanâgrowth, and FYâ2025 netâincome guidance. A beatâorâmiss on these core metrics will be the primary driver of price movement in the days following the chat. Position accordinglyâlong on a raised earnings outlook or consider a short/defensive stance if the guidance signals slower loan growth, a widening netâchargeâoff ratio, or a muted capitalâreturn plan.