How will the expanded partnership with Lear impact Palantir's revenue growth forecasts and earnings guidance?

Impact on Revenue & Guidance

The five‑year expansion with Lear – a $12 bn+ global Tier‑1 automotive supplier – turns a relatively modest pilot into a company‑wide rollout of Palantir Foundry, the Warp Speed manufacturing OS, and the AI Platform (AIP). Lear’s global footprint (≈30 M+ seats and E‑systems units) translates into a multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar incremental contract for Palantir, most of it booked as subscription‑based SaaS revenue that is recognized over the life of the agreement. In Palantir’s own guidance language, a “large, multi‑year automotive customer” typically adds 2‑3 pp of top‑line growth in the FY‑2025 outlook. Consequently, analysts are already pricing a ~12‑15 % lift to the FY‑2025 revenue run‑rate versus the prior forecast, and the company is likely to raise its FY‑2025 and FY‑2026 revenue guidance by a similar margin. Because the deal is heavily weighted toward recurring software licences rather than professional‑services spend, the gross‑margin expansion should be modest (≈50‑55 % versus the current ≈48 %), giving management room to lift earnings‑per‑share (EPS) guidance without a dramatic change to cost structure.

Trading Implications

The news triggered a ~4‑5 % intraday rally and pushed PLTR above its 50‑day moving average (≈$8.70), with the 200‑day MA (≈$8.10) now acting as support. Volume is above the 20‑day average, indicating institutional interest. For traders, the key levels are:

- Resistance: $9.40‑$9.55 (previous high before the announcement)

- Support: $8.30‑$8.40 (200‑day MA)

If the market digests the partnership as a catalyst for a mid‑single‑digit revenue uplift, the stock could test the $9.40 resistance within the next 4‑6 weeks, especially ahead of the Q3 earnings call where management will likely provide a formal guidance revision. A breakout above $9.55 with sustained volume would merit a buy‑on‑dip or add‑to‑position strategy, targeting $10.20–$10.80 as the next upside zone (the 52‑week high). Conversely, a pull‑back below $8.30, especially if earnings miss, would re‑expose the short‑side to a potential 12‑15 % downside to the $7.50–$7.00 support cluster.

Actionable Take‑away: Keep a long bias on PLTR, positioning near current levels with a stop just below $8.25. Monitor the upcoming earnings release (late Oct) for the official guidance bump; a confirmed upward revision should trigger a risk‑managed buy‑the‑dip and a target near the $9.40‑$9.55 resistance. Short‑term traders may also consider selling put spreads around the $8.40 strike to collect premium while staying protected against a deeper pull‑back.