What are the potential risks and timelines for moving from near-surface sampling to a definitive resource estimate for the project?
Risks & Timeline
Moving from the current near‑surface channel samples to a definitive NI 43‑101 resource estimate involves several key risk layers. First, the high‑grade intercepts (e.g., 4.17 % Cu, 2.68 % Ni, 1.28 % Co over 5 m) are still limited to a handful of drill holes; the representativeness of these assays can be compromised by sampling bias, grade discontinuities, or alteration zones that become apparent once a denser infill program is executed. Second, metallurgical uncertainty—especially for a multi‑metal system that includes cobalt and nickel—means that recoveries could differ sharply from laboratory assays, affecting the economic model. Third, permitting and land‑access hurdles in the Cármenes region, as well as the need for a full environmental impact study, can add months to the schedule. Finally, financing risk is non‑trivial: the company must raise additional capital (likely equity or project‑financing debt) to fund the next drilling phase, a process that can be delayed by market conditions or dilution concerns.
In practice, a typical path to a preliminary resource estimate for a Spanish project of this scale takes roughly 12‑18 months after the initial high‑grade discovery. The first 6‑9 months are usually devoted to a systematic infill drilling campaign to define continuity, depth extent, and tonnage, followed by bulk‑sample metallurgical testing and a resource modelling phase that culminates in a NI 43‑101 or JORC‑compliant estimate. Assuming Pan Global can secure the required funding and permits within the next quarter, a credible resource estimate could be released by Q2‑Q3 2025. Traders should therefore price in a near‑term upside from the exploration news but remain cautious of a possible delay beyond that window, which would keep the stock in a speculative “exploration‑stage” risk profile. A breakout above current resistance levels would be justified only if the company confirms the grade continuity and releases a resource update on schedule; any postponement or negative metallurgical results should trigger a reassessment of the bullish thesis.