What is the expected effect on the company's valuation metrics (P/E, EV/EBITDA) after the leadership changes?
Impact on valuation multiples
The abrupt departure of both the CEO and CFO creates a shortâterm âleadâvacuumâ risk that markets typically price as a discount to the equity value. In the immediate aftermath the stock is likely to lose 4â8âŻ% on the day of the announcement, which will compress the priceâtoâearnings (P/E) multiple (price drops while the trailing EPS remains unchanged). The same priceâdrop pressure reduces enterprise value (EV), while EBITDA for the latest twelveâmonth period is unchanged, so the EV/EBITDA ratio will also compress. In other words, both P/E and EV/EBITDA will move lower, making the stock look âcheaperâ on a purely multipleâbasis, but the compression reflects heightened uncertainty rather than an improvement in fundamentals.
Trading implications
From a technical perspective the stock is currently testing the 20âday EMA and the 38.2âŻ% Fibonacci retracement of its recent upâtrend (â$7.15). The breach of these levels on higher volume would confirm the downside bias. Traders can look for a shortâterm sellâoff with a target near the 50âday EMA (â$6.70) and a stop just above the breakout level (â$7.30). The risk/reward improves if a new CEO is announced within 2â4âŻweeks; that would likely trigger a rapid bounce, making a shortâcover rally a possible secondary entry. In the meantime, keep an eye on the next earnings releaseâif management guidance is trimmed (e.g., lower FYâ24 EBITDA guidance), the multiple compression could become permanent, prompting a longerâterm short or a âwaitâforâturnaroundâ position after the leadership vacuum is filled.