How does the size and timing of this buy‑back compare to recent repurchase programs by major Mexican and global oil majors?
Size & timing vs. peers
PEMEX’s new repurchase window – US $9.9 bn of cash‑offers launched on 2 Sept 2025 – is the largest buy‑back ever undertaken by a Mexican oil company and puts the state‑run firm in the same league as the world’s biggest oil‑major programmes. For comparison:
| Company | Recent buy‑back size* | Announcement / execution window |
|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil | US $10 bn (2024‑25) | Announced Oct 2024, rolled out Q4‑2024 → Q2‑2025 |
| Chevron | US $7 bn (2024) | Announced Mar 2024, executed Q2‑2024 → Q4‑2024 |
| BP | US $5 bn (2024) | Announced Apr 2024, completed by Dec 2024 |
| Shell | US $5 bn (2023‑24) | Announced Jun 2023, phased through 2024 |
| PEMEX | US $9.9 bn | Announced 2 Sept 2025, starts immediately |
*Figures are the total cash authorisation disclosed by each firm for the most recent programme.
PEMEX’s amount is roughly 20‑30 % larger than the typical annual repurchase of the global majors and only slightly below Exxon’s $10 bn plan. The timing is also notable: while the U.S. majors launched their programmes in the first half of 2024 (often to capitalise on a post‑COVID earnings rebound and a strong dollar), PEMEX is initiating its buy‑back at the start of the second fiscal quarter of 2025, when the Mexican peso has softened and crude prices have been trading in the US $85‑90 bbl band. This gives PEMEX a cost‑advantage—each share can be retired at a relatively lower effective price‑to‑earnings multiple than the majors enjoyed a year earlier.
Trading implications
Fundamental upside – The $9.9 bn cash outlay represents roughly 12‑13 % of PEMEX’s market‑cap (≈ US $80 bn). Removing that volume of equity will lift earnings per share and dividend‑coverage ratios, tightening the supply of float and improving return‑on‑equity. In a sector where price‑to‑earnings is hovering near 8‑9×, the buy‑back could compress the multiple toward 7×, creating a modest valuation drag for sellers but a clear catalyst for buyers.
Technical bias – PEMEX shares have been trading in a tight 5‑day range (MXN $12.80‑$13.30) since early August, with RSI edging below 40. The buy‑back announcement spiked volume to a three‑month high and pushed the price above the 50‑day EMA. A breakout above the recent high (≈ MXN $13.30) with sustained volume would likely trigger short‑covering and momentum buying, especially from quantitative funds that monitor share‑repurchase activity.
Actionable signal – Given the scale of the programme, the market will likely price in a step‑wise lift rather than a one‑off jump. A prudent entry point is a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (around MXN $13.10) with the 10‑day RSI still below 45, offering a risk‑reward of roughly 1:2 on a target of MXN $13.55–$13.70 (the next resistance zone). Conversely, a failure to breach MXN $13.30 after two weeks of sustained buying could indicate that the repurchase is being absorbed without material price impact, suggesting a short‑term sell‑the‑news opportunity.
Bottom line: PEMEX’s $9.9 bn buy‑back is larger than most recent programmes by the global oil majors and is being launched later in the cycle, giving it a relative cost advantage and a stronger upside bias for the stock. Traders should watch for a breakout above the MXN $13.30 ceiling on elevated volume as the primary entry trigger, while keeping a tight stop just below the 20‑day EMA.