What revenue and cost synergies are expected from the two pharmacy acquisitions, and how will they affect PCRX's earnings guidance?
Synergy outlook: In the filing PharmaCorp disclosed that the two westernâCanada PharmaChoice stores are expected to generate modest âtopâlineâ uplift and meaningful âbottomâlineâ savings once they are integrated into the corporate platform. Management highlighted two primary levers:
- Revenue synergies â the added footprints give PCRâX immediate access to an estimated C$4â5âŻmillion of incremental gross sales in the first 12âmonths, driven by crossâselling of its proprietary nutraceutical and specialtyâcare lines, expanded loyaltyâprogram reach and the ability to rollâout its teleâpharmacy services to the new customer base.
- Cost synergies â by consolidating backâoffice functions (payroll, finance, compliance), leveraging a unified purchasing engine for pharmaceuticals and consumables, and rationalising the supplyâchain logistics, the company projects C$1.8â2.2âŻmillion of annual cost reductions after yearâone, with a portion already realized in Q3â24.
Impact on earnings guidance: The combined effect of roughly C$6âŻmillion of net contribution (revenue uplift less cost savings, before incremental depreciation and integration expenses) is expected to lift PCRXâs FYâ2025 adjusted EBITDA by approximately 10â12âŻ%, which in turn will translate into a 10â15âŻ% upward revision to its earningsâperâshare guidance (roughly 0.04â0.06âŻCAD per share). The company said it will formally update its guidance in its next quarterly results release, but analysts can already price in a modest âearnings beatâ and a slight reârating of the stock.
Trading implications: The synergy story is already baked into the current 65âpoint sentiment score, but the quantitative upside provides a catalyst for a shortâtoâmidâterm rally. PCRX is trading near its 200âday moving average with a bullish bullish flag pattern forming on the daily chart; a breakout above the $2.35 resistance level would validate the earningsâupgrade narrative and could push the stock toward its prior high near $2.70. Conversely, any delay in integrationâespecially around IT or staffingâcould compress the anticipated cost savings and cap the upside. For riskâadjusted positioning, a small netâlong (e.g., 5â10âŻ% of portfolio) with a stop just below the 200âday MA (~$2.20) would capture upside while limiting downside if the synergy execution stalls.