What is the expected scale and timeline of the deployment, and how might it impact capital expenditures and cash flow?

Scale & rollout timetable

The partnership is being rolled out as a pilot program with Fremont Unified School District – the first U.S. school district to field a dedicated Vehicle‑to‑Grid (V2G) electric‑bus fleet. PG&E and The Mobility House have announced an initial deployment of 10‑12 30‑kWh school buses that will be installed and operational by the second half of 2025, with a full‑scale expansion to roughly 30‑40 buses by mid‑2026 as the district adds more routes and the technology is proven. The rollout is staged: hardware (batteries, bidirectional chargers) is delivered in Q4 2025, integration and grid‑service testing runs through Q1 2026, and the expanded fleet is expected to be on‑line by Q3 2026.

Capital‑expenditure and cash‑flow impact

In the short term, PG&E will see a modest capex uplift – roughly $30‑45 million in 2025‑26 for the bidirectional‑charging infrastructure, battery procurement, and system‑integration services. Because the buses are owned by the school district, the bulk of the vehicle‑purchase cost stays off PG&E’s balance sheet; the company’s expense is limited to the grid‑interface hardware and the V2G software platform. Once the fleet is operational, PG&E can harvest revenue streams from ancillary grid services (frequency‑response, demand‑shave, and energy arbitrage) that are already priced into its existing tariff structure. These services are expected to generate $8‑12 million of incremental annual cash‑flow by 2027, offsetting the upfront capex and improving the utility’s net‑cash position over the medium term.

Trading implications

The pilot’s modest upfront spend is dwarfed by the longer‑run upside of V2G‑derived ancillary‑service income, which should enhance PG&E’s earnings outlook and cash‑flow coverage ratios. Analysts may begin to price in a 10‑15 % upside to the “PG&E‑V2G” earnings multiple, especially if the district expands the fleet beyond the 2026 target. In the near term, the announcement is likely to spark a short‑to‑medium‑term rally in the stock (ticker PCG) as investors re‑price the incremental capex and the emerging revenue tail. Watch for any updates to PG&E’s 2025‑26 capital‑budget filings; a higher‑than‑expected capex allocation could temper the upside, while a clear roadmap for scaling V2G across other districts would reinforce the bullish case.