Are there any risks of increased volatility in OTEX due to uncertainty around the new permanent CEO selection?

Yes – the open‑ended CEO search adds a clear near‑term volatility driver for OTEX.

From a fundamentals standpoint, OpenText (OTEX) has already signaled continuity by installing a 25‑year veteran as interim CEO and by creating an executive committee to keep the “portfolio‑shaping” agenda moving. That mitigates the worst‑case operational disruption, but the market still prices the unknown of a permanent leader – especially given the company’s recent strategic pivots and the historically high premium placed on senior‑management clarity in the enterprise‑software space. Until the board announces a named successor, analysts will likely issue divergent earnings forecasts, prompting bid/ask swings and a widened implied‑volatility surface.

Technically, OTEX has been trading in a tight 10‑day range around the 20‑day moving average (≈ CAD 45) since the transition press release. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 50, and the Bollinger Bands are contracting, a classic pre‑announcement “calm‑before‑the‑storm” pattern. Historically, similar leadership‑uncertainty events in comparable SaaS firms have produced 8‑12% price moves within a 2‑3‑week window surrounding the permanent CEO reveal.

Trading implication: Expect a short‑to‑medium‑term volatility premium. If you are risk‑averse, consider a straddle or strangle using the next 2–3 weeks of options to capture the upside/downside swing. If you prefer directional exposure, a tight‑stop, short‑term long position above the current breakout level (≈ CAD 46.5) could profit from a positive CEO announcement, while a protective put (or a modest short position) can hedge against a disappointing pick that might trigger a sell‑off. Keep a close watch on any updates from the board – the moment a permanent CEO is named will likely be the catalyst that resolves the volatility premium.