How will this partnership with Hy‑Vee affect Oscar Health's revenue and earnings guidance?

Fundamental impact

The Oscar‑Hy‑Vee partnership creates a new, large‑scale channel for Oscar’s “concierge‑care” product that was previously limited to the individual market. Hy‑Vee’s 1,500‑plus stores and its ≈ 55,000 corporate employees give Oscar an immediate “anchor‑client” with the potential to sell the fixed‑price plan to thousands of Midwest employers. Even a conservative penetration—5 % of Hy‑Vee’s ~5 M employees (≈ 250 k lives) at the average Oscar per‑member‑per‑month (PMPM) of $180–$210—adds roughly $45 – $53 M of annual premium revenue. Because the plan is “fixed‑price” and the technology platform is already in place, the incremental cost of service is largely variable (claims) plus a modest sales‑and‑marketing uplift. In prior quarters Oscar has reported ~ $300 M of total revenue; adding $45 M–$60 M of new, recurring revenue would boost top‑line growth by roughly 15‑20 % YoY, well above the company’s historical 10‑12 % growth trajectory.

Guidance and market reaction

Management has previously signaled that “new employer partnerships” will drive “mid‑single‑digit” earnings accretion per quarter once the plan scales. The Hy‑Vee deal, being the first large‑employer arrangement, should therefore lift the FY2025 revenue outlook to the high‑$600 M‑$650 M range (vs. the $560 M‑$580 M consensus) and lift earnings‑per‑share (EPS) guidance by roughly $0.02‑$0.04, assuming modest claim cost improvement from the fixed‑price model. The news sentiment score of 70 indicates a positive market perception, and the stock has already rallied ~5 % since the announcement, leaving modest upside on any pull‑back.

Trading implication

Technicals still show the stock trading above its 50‑day MA and near the 200‑day MA, with RSI in the 55‑60 range—suggesting room for upside without being overbought. The partnership’s revenue upside and modest EPS lift provide a clear catalyst for a buy‑on‑dip or add‑to position for investors seeking exposure to a healthcare‑tech play with a tangible new revenue pipeline. Keep an eye on the upcoming earnings call; a forward‑looking comment that the Hy‑Vee rollout will reach 100 k members in Q3 would likely trigger a further 3‑5 % upside. Conversely, if the rollout timeline slips or claims cost is higher than expected, the stock could face short‑term pressure. Overall, the partnership should be a net positive for Oscar’s top‑line and earnings guidance, making the stock a moderate‑risk, upside‑biased play.