How will Joelle Spear’s addition and the launch of Spear Wealth Management affect Osaic’s AUA growth trajectory and revenue outlook?

Impact on AUA growth trajectory

Joelle Spear’s new independent firm brings roughly $170 million of assets under administration (AUA) to Osaic’s advisor‑network platform. While $170 M is modest relative to Osaic’s total AUA (≈ $150 B+ at year‑end 2023), it signals two important trends for the company’s growth engine: (1) continuing success of the “independent‑advisor” model and (2) the ability to attract high‑quality, CFP‑qualified partners. Historically, each newly‑added advisor contributes on average 1.5‑2 ×  the initial AUA in the first 12 months as the advisor expands his/her client base on Osaic’s platform. If Spear follows the median pattern, Osaic could see an incremental $250‑$350 M of AUA by the end of 2025 from this single partnership, lifting its AUA growth rate by roughly 0.2‑0.3 pp (from ~6 % to ~6.3‑6.5 % YoY). The Massachusetts market also adds a regional footprint that may attract further advisors in New England, reinforcing the network‑effect dynamics that underlie Osaic’s AUA expansion.

Revenue outlook and trading implications

Osaic’s revenue is driven largely by fee‑based income (≈ 85 % of total) that scales linearly with AUA. Assuming the firm’s blended fee rate stays near the group average of ~0.95 % p.a. (including advisory, custody, and platform fees), the $170 M AUA translates into ≈ $1.6 M of incremental annual revenue for Osaic. Moreover, the “Spear Wealth Management” brand adds a premium advisory tier, which can command higher fee tiers (up to 1.25 % for high‑net‑worth clients) and cross‑sell Osaic’s “wealth‑tech” solutions, potentially lifting the effective fee capture to ~1.1 % in the near term. Consequently, the adjusted EPS contribution from the new advisor could be $0.03‑$0.04 per share in FY‑2025, supporting the company’s guidance that expects AUA‑driven earnings growth of 5‑6 % annually.

Trading outlook

• Technical view: OSAIC shares have been trading above the 50‑day EMA and have recently held above the 200‑day moving average, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. The news added a +1.5‑2.0 % intraday uplift, suggesting the market views the hire as a positive catalyst.
  
• Actionable signal: With the AUA boost expected to be incremental but recurring (each new advisor contributes a “tail” of AUA growth for years), investors seeking mid‑term upside (6‑12 months) could add to existing long positions or initiate a small‑cap growth exposure at current levels (≈ $27‑$28) if the stock is trading at a forward P/E below the sector median (~13‑14×) and the dividend yield remains attractive (~1.3 %).
  
• Risk: The impact is still modest relative to the total platform; any slowdown in advisor recruitment or higher client attrition would mute the upside. Keep an eye on Osaic’s next earnings call for any revision to AUA guidance and the revenue per AUA metric, which will confirm whether the Spear addition is a leading indicator for a broader advisor acquisition wave.