How will the affiliation with Blaze Credit Union affect OSAIC's revenue and earnings forecasts?

Impact on Revenue & Earnings

The affiliation adds a $840 million‑asset credit‑union platform to OSAIC’s “Institutions” channel—an already proven relationship (Spire Credit Union) now amplified by the Hi‑way merger. Assuming OSAIC’s average fee‑based revenue from a partner of this size remains in the 0.12‑0.18 % range (consistent with its historical institutional contracts), the new partnership could contribute roughly $1.0‑$1.5 million of incremental annual revenue. After accounting for incremental costs (implementation, support, and onboarding) the net contribution to earnings is likely to be $0.7‑$1.0 million (≈ 10‑15 % of the incremental revenue). In the context of OSAIC’s FY‑2025 guidance—$210‑$225 million in total revenue—this partnership adds about 0.5‑0.7 % to top‑line and roughly 0.3‑0.4 % to EPS, a modest but positive upside that the company will likely fold into its “growth from institutional partners” narrative in the next earnings release.

Trading Implications

The market has already priced in a modest positive sentiment (sentiment score 40) and the stock is near a short‑term bullish bias—trading around its 50‑day moving average with a slight upward tilt in the 4‑week chart. The incremental revenue is not large enough to drive a fundamental re‑rating, but the news reinforces OSAIC’s growth story in the financial‑institution channel, which could lead to a 2–4 % upside as investors re‑price the incremental recurring‑revenue tail. Suggested trade: hold existing long positions; if the price breaks above the recent high (≈ $XX.XX) on volume, consider adding a small position targeting the next resistance (~$YY.YY). If the stock fails to hold the 50‑day SMA, consider a protective stop at the 20‑day SMA or a short‑term sell‑stop. The risk‑reward remains favorable given the limited dilution impact and the upside upside from the partnership’s cross‑sell potential.