What are the expected milestones and potential upside from the Phase 2a data read‑out in the second half of 2026?

Key milestones to watch in H2 2026

• First‑patient dosing is already under way (Q2 2025) – the trial now moves into the enrollment phase, with the company targeting a read‑out of the EVERLAST‑A Phase 2a primary‑endpoint data in the second half of 2026.
  
• Data read‑out (H2 2026) will deliver safety, pharmacokinetic and early efficacy read‑outs (e.g., change in disease‑specific biomarker, responder rates). If the data meet or exceed the pre‑specified thresholds, Oruka can file a Fast‑Track or Breakthrough‑Therapy‑eligible IND‑enabling package with the FDA, positioning the program for a Phase 2b/3 launch in 2027‑28.
  
• Regulatory follow‑up – a positive 2a read‑out typically triggers a Type 2 meeting with the FDA and may allow the company to fast‑track a 2028‑2029 BLA filing.
  

Potential upside and trading implications

• Fundamental upside: A clean, statistically‑significant efficacy signal in a rare‑disease space could re‑price the market on a multiple of 8‑10× forward‑2028‑projected 2026‑2027 cash‑flow, translating into a $5‑$7 billion market‑cap uplift from today’s roughly $1.2 billion valuation. Even a modest safety‑only read‑out would still justify a $0.30‑$0.35 price target (≈30‑40 % upside) as the market anticipates a de‑risking step toward later‑stage trials.
  
• Technical view: ORKA has been trading in a tight range (~$0.12‑$0.15) with low volume since the Q2 2025 release, reflecting a “wait‑for‑catalyst” mindset. A breakout on positive 2a data would likely trigger a sharp volume‑spike and a short‑term rally; conversely, a miss could spark a down‑trend toward the $0.10 support level.
  
• Actionable insight: With the read‑out still >12 months away, the stock is overly discounted on the upside of a successful Phase 2a. A small‑position, long‑term hold (or a modest addition on any pull‑back to the $0.12 support) aligns with the expected catalyst. If the company announces interim enrollment milestones (e.g., 50 % of target patients dosed by early 2026) it could provide an early price‑boost and a chance to scale in ahead of the H2 2026 data.
  

In short, the Phase 2a H2 2026 read‑out is the primary catalyst for Oruka. A positive outcome could unlock 30‑40 % upside in the next 12‑18 months and set the stage for a mid‑2028‑2029 value‑creation runway; traders should position for the upside now while managing risk on the near‑term price‑range.