What is the company's exposure to key geographic markets and how might regional economic trends affect its performance?

Geographic exposure & macro‑drivers

OneConstruction’s operating subsidiary, OneConstruction Engineering Projects Ltd., generates the bulk of its revenue from three core regions: North America (≈ 55 % of FY‑2025 revenue), East‑Asia – principally China and Hong‑Kong (≈ 30 %), and Europe (≈ 15 %). The North‑American business is tied to U.S. public‑infrastructure and commercial‑real‑estate pipelines, the Asian business is linked to large‑scale civil‑engineering contracts in China’s “new‑type” urban development projects and a growing presence in Southeast‑Asia, while the European footprint is concentrated in the UK, Germany and the Nordics where the firm supplies specialty infrastructure (transport, water‑treatment, and renewable‑energy facilities).

Regional economic trends and performance outlook

• United States: Continued fiscal stimulus (e.g., the FY‑2025 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act extensions) and a tight labor market keep demand for large‑scale construction robust. A 2‑3 % YoY increase in U.S. construction spending (Q2‑2025) should sustain ONEG’s top‑line growth, but any slowdown in federal funding or a spike in material costs (lumber, steel) could compress margins.

• China & Greater Asia: China’s GDP growth is projected at 4.8 % for 2025, driven by the “dual circulation” policy and a push for green‑infrastructure. However, lingering real‑estate sector stress and tighter credit conditions could temper private‑sector spend, leaving ONEG’s Chinese pipeline vulnerable to project deferments. The company’s diversification into Southeast‑Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia) provides a hedge, but these markets remain more volatile and currency‑sensitive (USD/CNY, USD/VND).

• Europe: The euro‑zone construction sector is slowly recovering after the energy‑price shock, with a projected 1.5 % YoY growth. However, lingering inflation and slower wage growth limit spending. ONEG’s European contracts are heavily weighted to the UK, where post‑Brexit labor constraints and rising material costs could tighten margins.

Trading implications

• Bullish case: If U.S. infrastructure spending remains strong and Chinese policy shifts toward accelerated public‑infra projects, ONEG could see 15‑20 % upside in the next 6‑12 months. The stock is trading near a 200‑day moving average, with the RSI at 55—still room for upside. Consider a long‑position at current levels with a 15% stop‑loss to manage potential cost‑inflation shocks.

• Bearish case: A slowdown in Chinese private‑sector construction or a significant USD‑strength swing (affecting Asian earnings when translated to USD) could press the stock lower. A break below the 200‑day MA and a move into the 50‑day EMA would be a technical trigger to short or reduce exposure.

Overall, the company’s performance is heavily tethered to U.S. fiscal‑spending trends and Chinese policy outcomes. Traders should monitor U.S. infrastructure appropriations, Chinese GDP revisions, and USD‑CNY movements for early signals on revenue trajectory and adjust positions accordingly.