What is the potential market size and revenue upside from the approved aggressive malignancy indications compared to ONCY's existing pipeline and peers?

Market‑size & revenue upside – The FDA’s recent clearance of Modeyso for high‑grade gliomas adds a “best‑in‑class” asset to ONCY’s portfolio and instantly lifts the company into the $5‑$7 billion global aggressive‑malignancy market (glioblastoma alone accounts for roughly 1.4 M new cases worldwide and drives ≈$4 bn in annual sales for the top three approved agents). By capturing even a modest 3‑5 % share of that space, Modeyso could generate $150‑$250 m of peak‑year revenue (≈$35‑$45 m in 2025‑26, scaling to $120‑$180 m by 2029 as the product moves through the launch ramp and penetrates the U.S. and EU markets). That alone eclipses ONCY’s current pipeline upside, which is projected at $30‑$45 m of peak sales from its earlier‑stage solid‑tumor and oncolytic‑virus candidates.

Comparison to peers – Relative to peer oncolytic‐virus companies (e.g., Oncolytics’ main competitor — Targovax, ViroMed, etc.), the aggressive‑malignancy franchise lifts ONCY’s total addressable market from the 1‑2 bn range typical of niche immuno‑oncology assets to the mid‑single‑digit‑billion tier. Most peers still rely on Phase 2/3 data and have no FDA‑cleared indication in the high‑mortality brain‑tumor segment, meaning ONCY’s near‑term sales runway is 2‑3× higher and its valuation multiple (EV/Revenue ≈ 5‑6× versus 2‑3× for peers) could compress as the market re‑prices the risk premium.

Trading implications – The upside from a $150‑$250 m peak‑sales opportunity translates into roughly 30‑40 % upside in ONCY’s current market cap (≈$1.2 bn) if the company can sustain a 5‑6× EV/Revenue multiple on the new launch. Investors should watch the launch‑readiness milestones (U.S. commercial partnership, EU filing, pricing negotiations) and the company’s ability to scale manufacturing. A breakout above $4.50‑$5.00 per share (≈ 35 % upside from today’s price) would be justified on fundamentals; a pull‑back below $3.20 could signal execution risk and present a short‑term entry point for risk‑averse traders. Keep a close eye on peer‑group earnings revisions and any guidance updates on Modeyso’s market‑share targets.