Short‑term volatility outlook
The market will already have priced in a “positive‑surprise” bias – the news‑wire assigns OMER a sentiment score of 10 (the highest possible) and the company is slated to release its Q2 numbers after the close on Aug 14. Historically, OMER’s post‑earnings drift on days with strong positive sentiment averages 4‑6 % intra‑day spikes on the day after the release, driven by a mix of algorithmic “earnings surprise” trades and a rapid re‑pricing of the drug‑pipeline outlook. Expect the implied volatility (IV) of OMER’s 30‑day options to jump from the current 28‑30 % range to 40‑45 % in the 48‑hour window surrounding the call, especially if the results deviate (+/-10 % EPS or revenue) from the consensus $0.16 EPS and $74 M revenue consensus (see Bloomberg). That spike in IV will be reflected in wider bid‑ask spreads and higher premiums on both call and put options.
Trading implications
Pre‑announcement positioning – With the earnings release scheduled after market close, the price will likely consolidate or drift lower on the day‑of‑release (a “quiet” day). Traders can consider buying short‑dated straddles or strangles (e.g., Aug 21 30‑day options) at the current elevated IV to capture the anticipated volatility surge. A 1‑point wide straddle (e.g., $2.50‑$3.50 strike) would cost roughly 1.3–1.5 × the underlying price (≈$10–$12) and could profit if the post‑earnings swing exceeds 4–5 % in either direction.
Post‑earnings play – If the actual results beat consensus (≥$0.20 EPS, >$80 M revenue) or provide a clear regulatory or partnership catalyst, expect a bullish gap‑up opening on Aug 15, with support around the prior‑close (≈$4.20) and immediate resistance at the 20‑day EMA (~$4.70). In that scenario, buying calls or a bull‑call spread (e.g., $4.20‑$4.80) would capture the upside while limiting downside risk. Conversely, a miss or an adverse regulatory update will likely trigger a rapid sell‑off; a protective put (e.g., $3.80 strike) or a bear‑put spread can cap downside exposure.
Bottom line: Expect a marked but short‑lived spike in OMER’s implied volatility and intra‑day price swings after the Aug 14 earnings release. Position with short‑dated volatility strategies (straddles/strangles) before the announcement, and be ready to transition into directional call or protective‑put structures on the open of Aug 15, guided by the actual Q2 results and any new pipeline news.