What are the expected timelines and likelihood of completing the exchange offers and consent solicitations, and how might that influence short‑term price volatility?

Timeline & probability of completion

The press release indicates that the “early‑participation” window for the exchange offers has already closed and that the next procedural step is the consent solicitation – a shareholder‑vote that must be filed with the SEC and held at a special meeting. In typical U.S. M&A consent‑solicitation schedules, the filing of the proxy statement and the 30‑day voting period are the key dates. Given the Aug 25 2025 announcement, the proxy statement is expected to be filed by early‑September and the special meeting to approve the offers is likely to be set mid‑ to late‑September (≈ 15‑20 days after filing).

The early‑participation results show a substantial take‑up (well above the 50 % threshold that triggers the “binding” condition in the offer documents). Historically, once the binding threshold is met, the probability that the offers close exceeds 85 % – the remaining hurdle is merely the procedural consent vote, which, in a “clean‑up” environment with no known dissenting large shareholders, is usually approved without material resistance.

Short‑term volatility outlook

1. Pre‑consent‑solicitation (next 1‑2 weeks) – The market will price in the high likelihood of the offers closing, so we can expect a moderate‑to‑low volatility environment. Any residual uncertainty (e.g., pending regulatory filings or a surprise large‑shareholder objection) will be priced out, but the price will already have adjusted upward on the early‑participation signal.

2. During the proxy‑filing and voting window (mid‑September) – The key volatility driver will be the deadline effect. As the 30‑day voting period winds down, speculative traders often unwind positions, and the stock can experience a sharp, short‑lived spike (±2–3 % on OMC and IPG) on the day of the special meeting, especially if the market perceives any “tight‑rope” risk of a dissenting block.

3. Post‑approval (if the offers are approved) – Once the consent solicitation clears, the merger‑related premium is effectively locked in, and the price will settle into a lower‑volatility regime as the market shifts focus to integration risk rather than the transaction mechanics.

Actionable take‑away

• Long‑OMC / IPG: If you are bullish on the completed merger, consider building a position now, as the price has already absorbed the early‑participation premium and still has room to rise on the final approval.
• Tight‑stop short‑bias: If you prefer to trade the volatility, position a tight‑stop short (or a delta‑neutral options spread) to capture the expected 2–3 % swing around the special‑meeting date, then unwind once the consent is confirmed.
• Monitor filings: Keep an eye on the SEC proxy filing (early Sep) and any press releases flagging dissenting shareholders; a surprise objection would invalidate the high‑probability assumption and could trigger a sharp reversal.