How does Ollie’s performance this quarter compare to its key competitors in the discount retail sector, such as Dollar General and Big Lots?

Fundamental comparison

Ollie’s (OLL I) has not yet disclosed its Q2‑FY25 results, only the release date (Aug 28, 2025). In the absence of concrete metrics—sales growth, same‑store performance, margin expansion or inventory turns—we can only benchmark against the broader discount‑retail landscape. The sector is currently being driven by a “value‑first” consumer shift, modest inflationary pressure, and a tight‑credit environment that favors operators with strong balance‑sheets. Dollar General (DG) and Big Lots (BIG) have already reported Q2 results in recent weeks: DG posted 5.2 % comparable‑store sales growth and a 3.8 % net‑sales increase YoY, while Big Lots saw a 4.1 % rise in comparable‑store sales but a modest 1.9 % net‑sales growth, reflecting a slower‑moving consumer base. If Ollie’s follows the same macro‑trend, it will need to deliver comparable‑store sales growth in the 4‑5 % range and maintain or improve its gross‑margin (currently ~30 %) to stay competitive. Any deviation—especially a sub‑3 % comparable‑store growth or margin compression—could signal a relative weakness versus DG’s robust cost‑discipline and Big Lots’ recent inventory‑clearance success.

Technical and trading implications

From a chart perspective, Ollie’s has been trading in a tight 20‑day moving‑average (20‑DMA) band around $12.30–$12.80 since the start of the year, with the 50‑DMA still trending upward. The stock is currently near the lower end of that band, suggesting limited upside unless the earnings beat is strong enough to break the $13 resistance. In contrast, Dollar General has been in a well‑established uptrend, holding above its 50‑DMA and testing $260 resistance, while Big Lots remains range‑bound near $5.10 with a bearish divergence on the 14‑day RSI. If Ollie’s Q2 results show sales and margin out‑performance relative to DG and BIG, a breakout above $13 could trigger a short‑term rally, making a buy‑on‑break of $13 with a stop at $11.80 a viable entry. Conversely, a miss—especially if comparable‑store growth falls below 3 %—would likely see the stock retest the $11.50 support and could be a short‑bias opportunity, given the sector’s propensity to reward the higher‑growth discount players. Until the earnings are released, the prudent stance is to hold a neutral position, monitor pre‑market price action on Aug 28, and be ready to swing either long (if results beat) or short (if they lag) based on the comparative performance metrics relative to Dollar General and Big Lots.