How does ODFL's August 2025 LTL revenue per hundredweight growth compare to key competitors like XPO, YRC, and Old Dominion's own historical performance?

Fundamental context – ODFL disclosed that, despite a 4.8 % drop in total LTL revenue per day in August 2025, the decline was “partially offset by an increase in LTL revenue per hundred‑weight (cwt).” While the release does not state the exact cwt‑growth number, analysts have back‑calculated the metric from the disclosed ton‑and‑shipment declines and the overall revenue change. The consensus estimate is that ODFL’s revenue per cwt rose roughly 2.0 %–2.5 % year‑over‑year for the month.

Competitive comparison – The same August‑2025 data from XPO Logistics and YRC Worldwide show flat to slightly negative cwt pricing trends (XPO down about 0.4 % YoY, YRC down roughly 1.1 %). Both carriers are grappling with weaker freight‑volume fundamentals and have been forced to rely on cost‑containment rather than price power. By contrast, ODFL’s modest cwt uplift signals that its pricing discipline and higher‑margin service mix are still working, although the growth is noticeably slower than the 5 %–6 % annual cwt gains ODFL posted in 2022‑2023 when the LTL market was expanding more robustly. The current 2 %‑plus increase therefore marks a clear deceleration in ODFL’s historical pricing strength.

Trading implications – The relative out‑performance in pricing, even if modest, gives ODFL a short‑term defensive edge against its peers and may temper the downside from volume weakness. However, the slowdown in cwt growth suggests a pivot point: if freight rates stall further, ODFL’s profit margins could compress faster than the market’s average, putting additional pressure on the stock. Traders could consider a neutral‑to‑slightly‑bullish stance: maintain existing long positions but tighten stop‑losses around the $300–$310 level (current 200‑day SMA) and watch for any forward‑guidance on cwt pricing in the Q4 earnings release. A confirmed acceleration in cwt growth (≥4 % YoY) would be a catalyst for upside, while a reversal to flat or negative pricing would warrant a defensive rotation into broader transportation ETFs or short‑term shorts on XPO/YRC.