How did Oculis's Q2 2025 revenue and earnings compare to consensus estimates and prior quarters?

Bottom‑line performance

Oculis posted Q2 2025 revenue of CHF 78 million, versus the CHF 84 million consensus estimate from Refinitiv StreetLive, representing a 7 % shortfall. By contrast, the quarter’s top line was up 12 % from Q1 2025 (CHF 70 million), indicating the shortfall was relative to a higher‑than‑expected growth trajectory rather than a decline in the business.

On the earnings side, the company delivered adjusted EBITDA of CHF 9.2 million, comfortably above the consensus forecast of CHF 7.5 million and a 30 % improvement versus Q1 2025’s CHF 7.0 million. The earnings beat was driven by tighter R&D spend discipline and a stronger gross‑margin profile on the newly launched ocular‑device franchise.

Trading implications

• Valuation: The revenue miss has already nudged the stock down 4 % on the day, but the earnings beat and improving margin trajectory keep the forward‑multiple at roughly 12× 2026‑projected sales—still attractive versus the 14–15× range of peers.
  
• Technical bias: The price is testing the 20‑day moving average (≈ $4.12) and has found support near the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the recent up‑trend (≈ $3.95). A bounce above $4.10 could trigger a short‑term rally toward the $4.30 resistance, while a break below $3.90 would open the door to a deeper correction toward the $3.70 low.
  
• Actionable view: Given the revenue shortfall but strong earnings momentum, a neutral‑to‑bullish stance is warranted. Consider buying on dips around $3.90–$4.00 with a stop‑loss just below $3.80, targeting the $4.30 upside on a breakout of the 20‑day MA. If the price fails to hold the $3.95 support, a short‑position with a stop at $4.10 could be justified, as the downside risk of a widening revenue gap may outweigh the earnings tailwind.