Short‑term impact: The SEMARNAT clearance removes a key regulatory bottleneck for the Santo Tomás drilling programme, turning a “wait‑and‑see” risk into a near‑term catalyst. In the next 1‑2 weeks the market will likely reward the news with a 10‑15 % upside as investors re‑price the probability of a successful, unfettered exploration phase. The announcement came after a quiet price‑action period (the stock has been flat‑lined in the $0.85‑$0.95 range for the past 10 sessions) and will break that consolidation, generating a short‑term bounce.
Technical view: The price is currently holding just above the 20‑day SMA (~$0.88) and the 10‑day EMA (~$0.86). A break of the $0.90 resistance level—coincident with the news release—should trigger a momentary breakout and could pull the share toward the next resistance at $1.00. A stop‑loss placed 3‑4 % below the breakout (≈$0.86) would protect against a quick profit‑taking reversal.
Fundamental angle & trade idea: The resolution eliminates the need for a separate Environmental Impact Authorization, shortening the timeline to field‑level results and de‑risking cash‑flow forecasts. Analysts’ models will likely upgrade the probability of a 2025‑2026 resource‑add, lifting the valuation multiple. For a short‑term play, a buy‑on‑breakout at $0.90 with a target of $1.00 (≈10 % upside) and a tight stop at $0.86 aligns with the risk‑reward profile. If the market digests the news more cautiously, expect a modest 5‑8 % bump; in that case, a small‑position entry around $0.88 with a $0.84 stop could still capture the upside while limiting downside.