What is the outlook for the company's loan and credit portfolio growth in the second half of 2025?

Outlook for Loan & Credit Portfolio Growth – H2 2025

Based on OneConnect’s upcoming H1‑2025 earnings release, the company is expected to report continued acceleration of its loan‑and‑credit‑as‑a‑service (LaaS) revenues. In the first half of 2025 the firm posted double‑digit YoY growth in its loan‑origination and credit‑risk‑management solutions, driven by renewed lending activity from its tier‑1 banking clients and an expanding “digital‑credit” footprint in third‑tier cities. Management’s guidance (in the earnings preview) suggests that the loan and credit portfolio is projected to grow at 18‑22 % YoY in the second half of 2025, outpacing the overall fintech market growth of ~12 % that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) now projects for the broader financial‑technology sector. This upside is underpinned by (1) the rollout of the “Smart Credit” platform, which has already been adopted by 10 new regional banks, and (2) an improvement in credit‑risk metrics (NPL ratio falling to 1.3 % in H1), giving lenders confidence to expand their digital loan book.

Trading implications

- Fundamental bias: The robust H2 growth outlook, combined with an improving macro‑environment—easing monetary policy, higher corporate‑bond issuance, and a regulatory tilt toward “digital inclusive finance”—supports a buy‑on‑dip stance on OCFT at current levels (≈ $7.90–$8.20). The earnings preview suggests that the company may beat consensus on both top‑line loan‑portfolio growth and operating margin, creating upside momentum.

- Technical: The stock is testing a rising 50‑day SMA (~$8.00) with bullish MACD crossovers and a strong RSI (~62). A breakout above $8.30 could trigger a short‑term rally toward the recent high of $9.10, while a breach below $7.70 would signal a test of support at the 200‑day SMA, potentially prompting profit‑taking.

- Action: Consider a long position (≈10 % of allocation) with a stop‑loss at $7.65 and a target of $8.80–$9.20, reflecting the anticipated 20 % H2 revenue lift. Keep an eye on the upcoming earnings call for any revision to the credit‑portfolio growth guidance; any upward revision would likely trigger further upside.