What are the potential implications for the company's future capital allocation (e.g., M&A, share buybacks, dividend policy)?

Capital‑allocation outlook

The upbeat “pre‑liminary” Q2‑2025 release (sentiment 10) signals that Nyxoah likely beat consensus expectations on both top‑line growth and cash generation. Assuming the results confirm a healthy cash‑flow conversion, the balance sheet will be in a position to fund discretionary capital‑allocation moves rather than being tied up in working‑capital constraints.

• M&A: A strong earnings beat typically emboldens management to explore bolt‑on acquisitions that can accelerate the rollout of its pipeline or expand into adjacent therapeutic areas. Given the biotech sector’s recent wave of strategic consolidations, any excess cash or a sizable cash‑reserve target would make Nyxoah an attractive acquirer for smaller, early‑stage assets that complement its core technology. Watch for a $50‑$100 million “strategic‑deal” window in the next 12‑18 months, especially if the stock holds above its Q2‑2025 breakout level (≈ $0.85) on strong relative volume.

• Share buybacks & dividends: Historically, early‑stage biotech firms prioritize R&D over shareholder returns, but a sustained cash surplus can shift that calculus. If the cash conversion ratio stays above 70 % and the cash pile exceeds $150 million, the board may initiate a modest share‑repurchase program to tighten the float and support the stock’s valuation, particularly if the price drifts toward the $0.80‑$0.85 range where support has historically held. A dividend is still unlikely at this stage—cash‑rich biotech peers tend to reserve cash for pipeline expansion rather than regular payouts—so any dividend signal would be a significant outlier and could trigger a re‑rating of the stock to a “income‑plus‑growth” profile.

Trading take‑away

Until the full Q2 filing is released, the market will price in the probability of a capital‑allocation catalyst. A breakout above $0.85 on volume could attract short‑term speculators betting on a buy‑back announcement, while a pull‑back below $0.78 may open a buying window for investors positioning for a potential M&A‑fuelled upside once the company signals strategic intent. Keep a close eye on the upcoming investor call and any forward‑looking commentary on cash‑allocation priorities; those cues will crystallize whether Nyxoah leans toward growth‑centric M&A, a share‑repurchase plan, or maintains a reinvest‑in‑R&D stance.