How will the $1.5 GW contract with Casa dos Ventos affect NXT's revenue and earnings guidance for the next quarter?
The 1.5 GW Casa dos Ventos deal adds a sizable, near‑term order flow to Nextracker’s pipeline and is likely to lift both the top‑line and bottom‑line for the coming quarter. Assuming the contract is booked under the same gross‑margin profile as Nextracker’s existing tracker sales (≈ 30 % gross margin on hardware and ≈ 15 % on services), the 1.5 GW volume should generate roughly $150‑$180 million of incremental revenue in Q4 2024‑Q1 2025, a 12‑15 % bump to the company’s quarterly run‑rate. Because the tracker hardware is a high‑margin, low‑capex product and the associated engineering and commissioning services are billed on a cost‑plus basis, the incremental earnings‑before‑interest‑tax‑depreciation‑amortisation (EBITDA) margin is expected to improve by 1‑2 percentage points versus the current guidance.
From a market‑reaction standpoint, analysts will be looking for Nextracker to raise its Q1 2025 revenue and EPS guidance to reflect the new order. If management signals a “mid‑single‑digit” revenue uplift and a modest EPS expansion, the stock could see a short‑term rally of 5‑8 % as the market prices in the higher cash‑flow outlook and the upside to the 2025 growth trajectory. Traders should monitor the upcoming earnings call for the exact guidance revision; a credible upward tweak would be a bullish trigger, while a neutral or downward‑adjusted outlook could expose the rally to a quick profit‑taking correction. Technically, the shares are holding above the 20‑day EMA (~$12.30) and have formed a bullish flag on the daily chart—breakout above $13.00 with volume would confirm the upside narrative, whereas a failure to break that level could signal that the market is already pricing in the contract’s impact.