Does the company provide any guidance for FY2025 or the next reporting period, and how should that be incorporated into our forecasting models?
Guidance â none disclosed
The Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR) release on its Q2âŻ2025 results highlights âstrong operating resultsâ after the recent shift to a pureâplay industrial model, but the statement does not contain any explicit FY2025 or nextâperiod earnings, dividend, or cashâflow guidance. Management only reiterated the strategic transition and the positive performance of the quarter; no forwardâlooking targets or outlooks were provided.
How to treat this in our forecasting models
1. Baseâcase from Q2 fundamentals â With no formal guidance, the most reliable forwardâlooking input is the Q2 data itself. Extract the net operating income (NOI), occupancy, and rentâgrowth trends from the quarter and extrapolate them to the remaining six months, adjusting for seasonal factors (e.g., higher leasing activity in Q3/Q4) and the expected rampâup of the pureâplay industrial portfolio.
2. Scenario layering â Build a âmanagementâneutralâ scenario that assumes the Q2 momentum continues, a âoptimisticâ scenario that adds a modest 3â5âŻ% incremental NOI from the ongoing industrial conversion, and a âdownâsideâ scenario that factors in potential macroâheadwinds (e.g., higher interest rates, slowing logistics demand). Use these scenarios to generate a range of FY2025 EPS, FFO and dividend forecasts rather than a single point estimate.
3. Technical and market context â The positive sentiment (+70) and the pureâplay narrative have already pushed the stock into a shortââtoâmediumâterm uptrend (higher highs, higher lows on the daily chart, 20âday SMA above the 50âday SMA). Incorporate this bias by assigning a higher probability to the neutralâoptimistic scenario in the model, but keep a downside weight to capture the lack of formal guidance and the potential for a corrective pullâback if Q3 data miss expectations.
Actionable implication
Given the absence of FY2025 guidance, the market is pricing the stock on the strength of Q2 results and the strategic shift. For a longâbiased position, target the current breakout level with a stop just below the recent swing low (~2â3âŻ% under the entry price) and size the position to capture upside if the optimistic scenario materialises. Conversely, maintain a modest hedge (e.g., a protective put or a tight stop) to guard against a surprise Q3 shortfall, which would force the model to revert to the downside scenario. This approach lets the model stay flexible while still reflecting the strong Q2 fundamentals and the prevailing market momentum.