What is the company's guidance for Q3 and full‑year 2025, and how does it align with market forecasts?

Guidance disclosed

NextPlat Corp. said it expects Q3 2025 revenue of $13.5 million – $14.5 million and full‑year 2025 revenue of $55 million – $58 million. The company also reiterated its operating‑expense reduction trajectory, targeting a 12 % YoY decline in SG&A for the year.

Market view vs. guidance

The Q3 range sits just above the Street’s consensus estimate of $13.3 million (FactSet/Refinitiv), implying a modest beat that should keep the short‑cover rally intact. For the full‑year, analysts are currently forecasting $56 million ± 2 million revenue, so NextPlat’s $55‑$58 million corridor is squarely in line with the consensus and leaves little room for a surprise shock—either side of the midpoint will be interpreted as a “meet‑or‑beat” rather than a miss.

Trading implications

* If the company delivers the high‑end of its guidance (Q3 $14.5 M, FY $58 M) and confirms continued expense discipline, the stock could see a 2–3 % upside on the next earnings‑related bounce, especially as the price is still trading near the lower end of its 200‑day moving average (~$12.30).

* If results fall toward the low‑end (Q3 $13.5 M, FY $55 M) or expense reductions slow, the market may price in a 2 % downside and the shares could test the $11.80 support level, where the daily RSI is already in oversold territory (<30).

* Given the guidance is in‑line with consensus, the current price action is likely to be driven more by forward‑looking commentary (e.g., new product pipelines, margin expansion) than by the top‑line itself. A tight‑range trade around the $12.30–$12.80 band, with a bias toward buying on any dip below $12.00 and taking profits near $13.00, would be a prudent way to capture the incremental upside while limiting downside exposure.