What is the potential impact on the Fund's credit rating or borrowing capacity, if any, once the new capital is received?
The infusion of capital from the rights offering will most likely strengthen the Fundâs balanceâsheet metrics and therefore give rating agencies a more favorable view of its creditworthiness. By adding a sizable cash trancheââŻthe preliminary results show that the Offer has attracted a strong subscriptionââthe Fund can lower its netâdebtâtoâassets and netâdebtâtoâEBITDA ratios, which are key quantitative triggers in most rating models. If the proceeds are used primarily to retire higherâcost senior debt or to fund growth projects with stable, contractâlinked cashâflows, the credit rating could be either affirmed or upgraded in the next rating cycle, and the Fundâs borrowing capacity (i.e., the amount it can borrow at a given spread) should expand. Rating agencies tend to reward such deleveraging with a ârating upliftâ or, at a minimum, a ârating watchâ that reduces the likelihood of a downgrade and may lower the spread on any future debt issuance.
From a trading perspective, the market should price in a modest creditârating premium for the stock, especially if the fundâs leverage falls below a key covenant threshold (e.g., 3.0Ă net debt/EBITDA). Expect the price to hold above the rightsâoffering subscription price and to be supported by any positive rating commentary. Traders can look for a breakout above the recent highâlow range (â$12.80â$13.30) on volume as a signal that investors are already pricing in the improved credit profile. A shortâterm âbuyâonâbreakoutâ strategy with a stopâloss just below the offering price, combined with a watch on rating agency releases (Moodyâs, S&P, Fitch) within the next 30â60âŻdays, offers a concrete, riskâmanaged play. If the rating is upgraded or the fund announces a new debt issuance at a tighter spread, the stock could see an additional 2â4âŻ% rally, providing a shortâtoâmidâterm upside target. Conversely, if the capital is used for aggressive expansion without sufficient cashâflow coverage, the rating may remain unchanged and any upside could be limited. Monitoring the fundâs next quarterly filing for actual debtâpaydown figures will be crucial for confirming the creditârating impact.