What is the expected impact on Novartis' revenue growth trajectory over the next 3‑5 years if ianalumab is approved?

Fundamental outlook

Ianalumab’s successful Phase III read‑out in Sjögren’s disease clears the most critical regulatory hurdle for a first‑in‑class therapy in a market that is still largely underserved. The global Sjögren’s therapeutic market is projected to reach ≈ USD 2 bn by 2030, with a CAGR of ~7 %. If Novartis can capture even a modest 10‑15 % share, annual sales would be in the USD 200‑300 m range once the product is launched (≈ 2026‑2027, after filing and approval). Adding this recurring stream to Novartis’ 2023‑2024 top‑line of USD 53 bn translates into a 0.4‑0.6 % lift in total revenue – a small but meaningful contribution for a company whose growth has been flat to slightly negative in recent years. More importantly, the approval would signal a revitalisation of Novartis’ immunology franchise, potentially unlocking synergies with its existing biologics platform and bolstering confidence in other pipeline candidates. Over a 3‑5‑year horizon, analysts could start to price in a 0.5‑1 % incremental CAGR to the firm’s overall revenue growth trajectory, nudging the long‑term growth outlook from ~0 % to ≈ 0.8 %–1.2 % per annum.

Trading and technical considerations

The market’s reaction to the ad‑hoc announcement (sentiment score 70) was already positive‑biased, with the stock trading near its 3‑month high and the 50‑day moving average (≈ USD 95) providing a supportive floor. Assuming the drug proceeds to regulatory filing in H2 2025, the next 4‑6 weeks could see a 5‑8 % rally as investors price in the upside of a new revenue stream and the “pipeline‑revival” narrative. On the downside, the rally is capped by the modest absolute revenue impact and the risk that the launch may be delayed or face reimbursement hurdles. A prudent trade‑setup would be to buy on a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (≈ USD 93.5) with a stop just below the 50‑day MA, targeting a short‑to‑mid‑term upside to the next resistance at USD 100. In the longer run, the incremental growth from ianalumab should be reflected in a re‑rating of the 5‑year earnings‑growth multiple from ~13× to ~14‑15×, providing a modest upside for the stock relative to peers in the immunology space.