How will the China deal affect NVDA's short‑term price momentum?

Short‑term outlook:

The announcement that Nvidia (and AMD) will be allowed to repatriate a portion of their China revenue in exchange for a modest licensing fee to the U.S. government removes a major regulatory cloud that has been weighing on the chips sector. The market’s 70‑point positive sentiment and the “huge market” narrative are likely to reignite bullish sentiment in the next 5‑10 days, pushing NVDA’s momentum indicators (RSI ≈ 58, MACD cross‑up) back into positive territory. Expect a modest “catalyst‑driven” rally rather than a sustained trend‑change; the move will mainly act as a short‑term price booster as traders re‑price the lost‑opportunity premium that had been priced into the “China‑risk” discount.

Technical/Trading implications:

- Key levels: Recent consolidation around the $460‑$470 band has formed a bullish flag. A break above the $475 resistance with above‑average volume would likely trigger a short‑term run toward the $500‑$520 zone (the next resistance cluster). Conversely, a failure to break $475 and a drop below the $440 support could prompt a retest of the $410‑$420 range, where buying interest historically re‑accumulates.

- Actionable play: For risk‑averse traders, consider a scaled‑up long at current levels (≈$460) with a tight stop at $435–$440 (to guard against a sudden regulatory reversal). A breakout‑above‑$475 could merit a partial profit target at $500, while a break‑down‑below‑$430 would be a signal to trim or hedge with puts. The overall market bias remains bullish, but stay vigilant for any new export‑control statements that could instantly reverse the short‑term momentum.