Shortâterm volatility:
The PMA filing is a classic âregulatory catalystâ that historically spikes both price movement and impliedâvolatility in biotech stocks. Even though the filing itself is a step forward rather than an approval, the market will price in the probability of a future FDA decision and the potential upside of a new indication for TTâFields. Expect a sharp, but brief, volatility bump as analysts and investors digest the news, with the VIXâstyle volatility index for NVCR likely spiking 30â50âŻ% above its 10âday average in the next 1â2âŻdays.
Trading volume:
Regulatory news tends to generate heightened media coverage and analyst commentary, prompting a surge of both institutional and retail activity. The ânewsâdrivenâ volume is likely to double or even triple the average daily volume (ADV) for the next trading session, especially if the stock is already thinly traded. The surge will be most pronounced on the day of the press release and the following day, then taper off as the market settles the information into price.
Actionable takeâaways:
| Scenario | Likely price bias | Suggested shortâterm play |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish bias (price holds above preânews levels) | Continuation of upside as the market anticipates a favorable FDA timeline | Consider buying on the dip with a tight stop (ââŻ5âŻ% below entry) and targeting a 10â15âŻ% move in 3â5âŻdays. |
| Bearish bias (price breaks below preânews support) | Overâreaction to âjust a filing, not an approvalâ | Look for a quick reversal; a shortâterm sellâshort with a stop just above the breakout level can capture a 5â8âŻ% bounce back. |
In practice, the safest approach is to stay on the sidelines until the first volatility wave subsides, then position based on the emerging price trend. The key is to size positions modestly, given the amplified volume and volatility that a PMA submission typically generates for a biotech ticker like NVCR.