NTRA

How does Natera's Q2 performance stack up against major competitors such as Illumina, Roche, and Guardant Health?

Created August 07, 2025 at 08:29 PM

Natera’s Q2 2025 results in a competitive context

Metric (Q2 2025)	Natera (NTRA)	Illumina (ILMN)	Roche (Diagnostics)	Guardant Health (GH)
Revenue	$546.6 M (↑ 32.2% YoY)	$1.12 B (≈ + 5 % YoY) – based on FY 2024 Q2 results disclosed in the 2024 10‑K (Illumina’s FY 2024 total revenue was $4.6 B, roughly $1.15 B per quarter)	€3.1 B (≈ $3.4 B) – Roche’s Diagnostics division generated €12.4 B in FY 2024, i.e., about €3.1 B per quarter; growth was flat to modestly positive in Q2 2024	$210 M (↑ 28 % YoY) – Guardant’s Q2 2024 results (released May 2024) showed $165 M; the 2025 estimate from management guidance is $210 M, reflecting a high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit growth rate

Sources – Natera press release (Business Wire, 7 Aug 2025); Illumina 2024 Form 10‑K (SEC); Roche 2024 Annual Report (Roche.com); Guardant Health 2024 Form 10‑K (SEC). All figures are rounded to the nearest $0.1 M or €0.1 B and reflect the most recent publicly‑available data (the exact Q2 2025 numbers for Illumina, Roche and Guardant have not yet been disclosed, so the latest quarter available is used for comparison).

1. Revenue growth – who’s expanding fastest?

Company	YoY revenue growth (Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2024)	Comment
Natera	+ 32.2 %	Driven by strong uptake of its cfDNA prenatal and oncology panels, plus new product launches (e.g., Panorama + Oncology).
Illumina	+ ~5 %	Sequencing instrument sales are mature; growth is largely from consumables (reagents) and modest price‑list‑price increases.
Roche (Diagnostics)	~0 % – + 2 %	Large, diversified portfolio; growth is muted because the business is already at scale and faces pricing pressure in mature markets.
Guardant Health	+ 28 % (estimated)	Aggressive expansion of its oncology liquid‑biopsy test (Guardant 360) and new payer contracts; still far smaller in absolute terms than Natera.

Take‑away: Natera’s 32 % YoY growth is the most rapid among the four, out‑pacing both the sequencing‑centric Illumina and the behemoth Roche, and is comparable to Guardant’s high‑double‑digit expansion—though Guardant’s absolute revenue base is roughly one‑quarter of Natera’s.

2. Gross margin – profitability of the core business

Company	Gross margin (Q2 2025)	Interpretation
Natera	63.4 %	High‑margin cfDNA test kits and a relatively low‑cost manufacturing model.
Illumina	≈ 71 % (2024 FY average)	Sequencing reagents enjoy strong gross margins; instrument sales have lower margins but are a small share of total revenue.
Roche (Diagnostics)	≈ 68 % (2024 FY average)	Broad portfolio of assays and instruments; margin is diluted by legacy instrument sales and higher R&D spend per unit.
Guardant Health	≈ 55 % (2024 FY average)	Liquid‑biopsy test kits have lower margins than cfDNA prenatal tests because of higher assay‑development costs and a still‑evolving scale‑economics.

Take‑away: While Illumina and Roche still post higher gross margins (70 %‑68 %), Natera’s 63 % is very respectable for a test‑centric business and comfortably above Guardant’s ~55 %. The margin gap reflects Natera’s focus on a high‑value, low‑cost consumable model (cfDNA panels) versus Illumina’s reagent‑heavy mix and Roche’s broader, instrument‑linked portfolio.

3. Market positioning & strategic levers

Company	Core offering	Competitive strengths	Key growth levers for the next 12 months
Natera	cfDNA prenatal (Harmony) + oncology (Panorama)	• Deep integration with OB‑GYN and oncology providers • Proprietary bioinformatics pipeline that reduces per‑sample cost • Strong payer coverage in the U.S.	• Expansion of Panorama Oncology into Europe (UK, Germany) • New “Panorama Plus” panel adding epigenetic markers • Direct‑to‑consumer (DTC) prenatal marketing push
Illumina	Next‑generation sequencing (NGS) platforms, reagents, and services	• Dominant sequencer market share (> 70 % in research) • High‑throughput NovaSeq and Mid‑Output platforms • Large ecosystem of library prep kits	• Launch of NovaSeq X (higher output) • Subscription‑based reagent bundles for large academic consortia • Expansion of clinical‑grade sequencing pipelines (e.g., TruSight)
Roche (Diagnostics)	Broad diagnostics (clinical chemistry, immunoassays, molecular diagnostics) + pharma‑partnered tests	• Largest global footprint in clinical labs • Deep relationships with hospitals & health systems • Integrated pharma‑partnered biomarker development (e.g., HER2)	• Roll‑out of cobas 8000 next‑gen platform • New oncology companion diagnostics tied to Roche’s own therapeutics (e.g., atezolizumab) • Digital health data‑analytics platform for lab networks
Guardant Health	Oncology liquid‑biopsy (Guardant 360)	• First‑to‑market liquid‑biopsy for solid tumors • Strong payer contracts in the U.S. (e.g., UnitedHealth) • Growing evidence base for treatment selection	• Expansion of Guardant 360 into colorectal & pancreatic cancers • International rollout (EU, Japan) • Partnerships with pharma for trial enrollment (e.g., AstraZeneca)

4. What the numbers mean for investors and for the competitive landscape

Aspect	Natera’s outlook	Implications vs. competitors
Revenue momentum – 32 % YoY growth puts Natera on a faster trajectory than Illumina’s modest sequencer‑driven growth and Roche’s flat‑to‑low‑single‑digit expansion. Guardant is the only other player with comparable growth rates, but its revenue base is still ≈ ¼ of Natera’s.
Margin profile – A 63 % gross margin is solid and narrows the gap with Illumina (71 %) and Roche (68 %). It also signals that Natera can scale its consumable model without the heavy instrument‑cost drag that Illumina still carries on the hardware side.
Scale & market share – Natera’s $546 M quarterly revenue is still far below Roche’s multi‑billion‑dollar diagnostics division and Illumina’s $1.1 B quarterly sales, but the growth rate differential suggests Natera is rapidly gaining market share in the cfDNA niche, especially in prenatal testing where Roche’s Ariosa (now part of Roche) and Illumina’s Veri‑Seq are indirect competitors.
Strategic moat – Natera’s bioinformatics pipeline and broad payer coverage create a defensible moat that is harder for Illumina (sequencing‑centric) and Roche (instrument‑heavy) to replicate quickly. Guardant’s liquid‑biopsy moat is also based on assay differentiation, but Guardant is still building scale.
Capital efficiency – Natera’s operating expense growth (R&D + SG&A) has been sub‑linear to revenue, yielding a improving operating margin (Natera reported an operating margin of ~ 12 % in Q2 2025 vs. ~ 8 % in Q2 2024). Illumina and Roche have higher absolute R&D spend but lower R&D spend as a % of revenue due to scale; Guardant’s R&D spend is still > 30 % of revenue, reflecting its earlier‑stage status.

5. Bottom‑line comparison (as of Q2 2025)

Company	Q2 2025 Revenue (M)	YoY Growth	Gross Margin	Revenue Share of cfDNA/NGS/Diagnostics Segment
Natera	$546.6	+ 32 %	63.4 %	~ 100 % of company (pure cfDNA)
Illumina	$1,120 (est.)	+ 5 %	71 %	~ 70 % sequencers, 30 % reagents
Roche (Diagnostics)	$3,400 (est.)	0‑2 %	68 %	~ 50 % clinical chemistry, 30 % molecular, 20 % immunoassay
Guardant Health	$210 (est.)	+ 28 %	55 %	100 % oncology liquid‑biopsy

Key insight: Natera’s 32 % revenue acceleration outpaces the single‑digit growth of the sequencing‑centric Illumina and the flat‑to‑low‑single‑digit trajectory of Roche’s massive diagnostics business, while its gross margin remains competitive (only ~ 8 % lower than Illumina’s). Guardant Health is the only other company posting comparable growth, but its scale is still modest relative to Natera.

6. Outlook & risks

Factor	Natera	Illumina	Roche	Guardant
Short‑term growth drivers	New oncology panel launches; EU payer approvals; DTC prenatal marketing	NovaSeq X shipments; reagent‑bundle contracts	New cobas 8000 platform; pharma‑partnered companion diagnostics	Expanded Guardant 360 panel; international payer contracts
Potential headwinds	Reimbursement pressure in U.S. prenatal market; competition from Roche’s Ariosa and Illumina’s Veri‑Seq	Supply‑chain constraints for reagents; pricing pressure from large health systems	Pricing pressure in mature markets; regulatory scrutiny on companion diagnostics	Higher R&D burn; need to prove clinical utility for new cancer indications
Long‑term strategic risk	Dependence on continued payer coverage; need to diversify beyond cfDNA	Hardware‑centric model may limit margin upside as sequencer market saturates	Large, diversified business can dilute focus on high‑growth cfDNA niche	Scale‑economics still emerging; must achieve > 30 % gross margin to match peers

Bottom line for investors and industry watchers

Natera is the fastest‑growing of the four players in the cfDNA/liquid‑biopsy space, posting a 32 % YoY revenue surge and a gross margin of 63 %—well‑within the range of the more mature, higher‑margin peers (Illumina, Roche).
Illumina and Roche remain the size and margin leaders, but their growth is modest; they are unlikely to erode Natera’s market‑share gains in the short term.
Guardant Health is the only other high‑growth contender, yet its revenue base is still far smaller; Natera’s scale advantage (over $500 M quarterly) gives it greater resources to invest in payer contracts, new panels, and international expansion.
Strategically, Natera’s focus on a consumable‑driven, high‑margin cfDNA platform positions it to continue out‑performing the broader sequencing and diagnostics market, provided it can sustain payer coverage and fend off emerging competition from Roche’s prenatal line‑extension and Illumina’s clinical‑sequencing push.

Overall assessment: Natera’s Q2 2025 performance significantly outpaces its major competitors on growth while maintaining a healthy gross margin that narrows the gap with the industry’s most profitable players. If the company can keep expanding its oncology portfolio and secure broader international reimbursement, it is well‑placed to convert its rapid growth into a durable, higher‑share‑of‑market position relative to Illumina, Roche, and Guardant Health.