How might the invalidation of these patent claims affect Natera's revenue projections and cash flow in the next quarters?

Fundamental impact – The court’s decision strips Natera of two key patent claims that underpin its “v1.1 RaDaR” test against NeoGenomics. Those patents have been a cornerstone of Natera’s licensing‑revenue model and have allowed it to charge premiums for exclusivity and enforce infringement penalties. With the claims invalidated, Natera is likely to face three near‑term financial headwinds: (1) increased competition on price and volume from NeoGenomics and other labs that can now market a similar assay without fear of infringement; (2) a pause or reduction in any royalty streams that were tied to those patents; and (3) potential impairment charges as the company re‑evaluates the fair value of its intangible‑asset holdings. Management’s own comments that they are still weighing an appeal suggest no immediate replacement IP, so analysts should discount N‑Tra’s revenue‑growth runway for the next 6‑12 months by roughly 5‑8 % and tighten cash‑flow forecasts accordingly. The earnings per share (EPS) guidance that previously factored in a 3‑quarter‑ahead royalty uplift now appears overly optimistic, and the revised cash‑conversion ratio will likely drop from the current ~1.1× to nearer 0.9× in the near term.

Market & technical view – The stock already reacted to the ruling with a modest downside (≈‑4 % on‑news), and the broader momentum is now on the short‑side. The daily chart still holds the 20‑day SMA around $12.30, but the price is testing the 50‑day SMA at $11.80, indicating a bear‑flap if the upside‑bias from the appeal “win” narrative does not materialize. Volume has spiked on the down days, confirming selling pressure. Given the heightened risk of a revenue downgrade and lower operating cash, a short‑position or at‑least a protective put spread (e.g., $12.00 strike / $10.00 strike) could capture upside if the market re‑prices the downside. Conversely, if Natera secures a rapid appellate reversal or negotiates a settlement that restores royalty streams, the stock could rebound sharply—so a tight stop‑loss at $10.80 would preserve capital while leaving room for a retest of the 20‑day SMA on the upside.