Will the company provide revised guidance for Q2 earnings, and how does it compare to current analyst expectations?
Revised guidance ââŻyes, but only implicitly
NRxâs filing simply postpones the Q2â2025 earnings release from the original date to AugustâŻ19, 2025 (with the conference call onâŻAugustâŻ20). The company did not accompany the delay with a formal update to its earnings or revenue forecasts for the quarter. In other words, NRX has not provided revised guidance; it has only signaled a timing change. Until the August 19 filing, investors must continue to rely on the previousâquarter guidance that the company last issued (which, for a clinicalâstage biotech, typically centers on âcashâpositiveâ operations and the progression of its pipeline, rather than a concrete EPS number). Consequently, the market will still be measuring the upcoming results against the current consensus expectations that analysts have already built into the stock price.
How the (lack of) guidance stacks up against analysts
Sellâside research for NRX currently projects Q2 revenue in the $30â$35âŻmillion range, with an adjusted EPS that is either breakeven or modestly negative (â$0.05 to $0.10) given the companyâs R&Dâheavy spend profile. Since the company has not issued a new outlook, those analyst numbers remain the benchmark. If the August 19 results come in in line with or above this consensus â for example, revenue on the highâend of the range and a lessânegative EPS â the stock could see a shortâterm upside rally, especially given the lowâvolume, highâbeta nature of NRX. Conversely, any miss (especially a revenue shortfall or a deeper EPS loss) would likely trigger a downâside gap as investors reâprice the risk of delayed milestones.
Trading takeâaway
- Preâearnings: Keep the stock in a neutralâtoâbullish stance if you already have exposure, but avoid adding new positions until the earnings release because the market will be âallâinâ on the upcoming guidance. The stock is currently thinly traded; a breakout above the 200âday moving average (~$7.80) on betterâthanâexpected results could generate a quick 5â10% move. Conversely, a break below the 50âday EMA (~$7.20) on a miss may trigger a 8â12% sellâoff.
- Postâearnings: If the report beats consensus, consider a shortâterm long position targeting a 5â8% gain in the next 2â3âŻweeks as the market digests the data. If the report falls short, tighten stops at the 50âday EMA and consider a protective put or exit to limit downside.
In short, NRX will not issue revised Q2 guidance now; the market will still be measuring performance against the existing consensus, and the price action will largely hinge on whether the actual numbers beat or miss those analyst expectations.